SVET Markets Weekly Update – March 10th–14th, 2025
On Week 11, major stock indexes closed in deep red, nearing yearly lows after more than a month of continuous decline reminiscent of 2022, as consumer and business sentiment deteriorated at a speed not seen in decades, while the economy still remains relatively strong. Meanwhile, BTC, ETH, and SOL continued to slide, prompting some analysts to declare the start of a bear market.
MONDAY
On Monday equities were in deep red, with the Nasdaq and S&P hitting 6-month lows while consumer inflation expectations rose to a yearly high of 3.1%.
World’s Markets:
- EU stocks were falling, following American markets engulfed in trade war mongering. Chinese, Brazilian, and Indian stocks followed the world’s trend into the red zone as America’s economic downturn becomes more pronounced. Meanwhile, Chinese domestic demand is weakening as deflationary pressure mounts.
Commodities and Currencies:
- The euro is at a 4-month high as Germany declared a €500 billion infrastructure fund to foster economic growth. Oil approached a 6-month low on recession fears and concerns about oversupply if sanctions are lifted.
Crypto:
- BTC plunged deeper after stocks and approached its November support zone of 70K to 75K. ETH broke through the buy barrier at 2K and is now trading at levels reached on a second month after the EU war started in February 2022. SOL is rapidly nearing 100, its yearly low.
The State Of Markets: All In Red, as America’s recession looms investors all over the world continue to panic-sale.
TUESDAY
On Tuesday, major stock indexes continued to fall as trade war escalates on new retaliatory tariffs. Meanwhile, business owners optimism dropped to the pre-election level with inflation remaining the main issue and job openings beating expectation specially in retails and finance while services shed jobs vacancies.
World’s Markets:
- EU stocks deepen its downsize with French market at its month lows as autos with N. American exposure declined.
- Brazilian industries stalled after three-month downsize with main gains coming from machinery sector while declines were registered in petroleum production. Brazilian equities were mostly flat.
- Indian market was volatile as IndusInd Bank dropped 30% on misreporting while Bharti Airtel gained on SpaceX’s agreement to bring Starlink to India.
- Chinese indexes were in green after the conclusion of the CCP annual meeting (Two Sessions), where party officials promised to support tech.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Gold went closer to ATH as oil prices lowers and dollar continues to weaken amid Washington’s anti-trade policies.
Crypto:
- BTC, ETH, SOL and ADA recovered adding 5–10% on technical buying.
The State Of Markets: Flat to Negative, world’s markets keep downward trajectory as investors continue to exit while trade war intensifies.
WEDNESDAY
On Wednesday, equities are mixed in response to retaliatory tariffs and an unexpected softening of the inflation rate to 2.8 from 3.0 for the first time in 6 months, driven by a decrease in energy costs (except for natural gas) and a smaller increase in shelter and transportation indexes. The government budget deficit (-$307B) continues to mount due to debt payments.
World’s Markets:
- EU stocks halted a 3-day downward streak, primarily due to the absence of extreme negativity and supported by an increased likelihood of a potential ceasefire. Retail growth in Spain continued to slow, particularly in non-food products. German bond yields reached a over 10-year high in anticipation of increased state borrowing.
- Brazilian inflation continues to climb, reaching a 17-month high of 5.06%, driven by energy prices, which have been somewhat softened by government credits, as well as housing costs. Meanwhile, stocks are rising based on technical factors.
- Indian industries grew beyond expectations, particularly in petroleum, minerals, and textiles. Despite this, stock indexes continue to decline as tech stocks fell following downgrades by leading brokers.
- Chinese stocks are in decline as tech momentum wanes after the end of the CCP session.
- Japan’s market stalled due to a 6–7% monthly wage hike deal between major corporations and their workers (30% of the country’s labor force), opening the door for more BOJ rate hikes as inflation is expected to rise as a result.
Commodities and Currencies:
- The sea freight index continues its rally, reaching a 3-month high as producers worldwide stockpile materials ahead of impending tariffs. Aluminum prices reached a 9-month high following Trump’s 25% tariffs, which significantly impact the American market, which imports 80% of its aluminum needs. The euro hit a 4-month high amid renewed hopes for a one-month ceasefire deal.
Crypto:
- BTC, ETH, and SOL have slightly softened their declines, reaching their 5–6 month lows.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, American and EU markets are mostly in the green, supported by a technical correction and easing inflation (which is almost certainly temporary), as well as renewed hopes for peace. In contrast, stock indexes in Asia are mostly down or stalled due to rising inflation and slowing economies.
THURSDAY
On Thursday, equities turned red due to new tariff threats, despite producer prices declining on a yearly basis, with the largest monthly fall since July 2024, led by vehicles and food.
World’s Markets:
- European industrial output stabilized after a 20-month streak of contraction, driven by a surge in intermediate goods (those used for the production of other goods), excluding energy. EU markets declined due to the refusal for a ceasefire and the threat of 200% tariffs on wine. France’s GDP growth was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%, partly due to trade tensions (estimated cost = -0.1% of France’s GDP).
- Brazilian equities rose on local developments, including a legal victory regarding a tax infraction and positive quarterly reports from commodities companies, particularly Petrobras.
- Indian indexes were down for the fifth consecutive session, led by declines in the auto, tech, and banking sectors, ahead of prolonged festive weekends.
- Chinese markets were in the red for the second consecutive session, led by tech and AI, amid renewed pessimism about the CCP’s 5% economic growth target.
- Japanese stocks fell due to prospects of a BOJ rate hike, despite a surge in Mitsubishi Electric shares following the announcement of a 43.5 trillion yen government defense plan.
- Mining production in South Africa continued its downward trend that began in 2024, as global demand — particularly from China — for resources fell. This decline was led by iron ore, platinum metals, and coal, while gold production rebounded in January.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Gold reached a new ATH above 2,970, silver hit a 4-month high, and the dollar strengthened again due to geopolitical factors.
Crypto:
- BTC, ETH, and SOL followed stocks into a downward spiral, raising concerns among some analysts who see signals of an upcoming bear market sparked by tariffs leading to an economic recession. Most, however, remain hopeful, believing that this is a temporary price adjustment that will pass as soon as tariffs are lowered or revoked.
The State Of Markets: In Red, almost all major global markets were down due to new tariff threats, an economic slowdown, and the refusal of a ceasefire deal.
FRIDAY
On Friday, markets are on the rise as investors’ worries about a government shutdown ease, coupled with expectations of the Fed’s shift towards more active rate reduction. This comes as consumer sentiment plummets to 2022 lows, with people’s expectations deteriorating across all economic facets, including personal finance, labor, and inflation. Inflation surged to 4.9% from 4.3% this year and is projected to rise to 3.9% from 3.5% over the next five years — the largest monthly increase in 33 years — impacting business conditions. Meanwhile, current economic conditions remain, objectively, little changed.
World’s Markets:
- EU equities followed America’s upward trend on a brief surge of trader optimism. German stocks jumped due to an agreement between Merz and the Social Democratic Party (SD) to change the state’s borrowing rules, which will allow for increased spending. Spanish inflation has risen for the fifth consecutive month, reaching 3% and nearing yearly highs, driven primarily by energy prices.
- The Brazilian real continues to strengthen on an improving government budget, while producers’ inflation eased for the twelfth consecutive month to nearly zero, with the food sector contributing the most. The stock market closed in the green, though retail sales continued to decline for the third month in a row.
- Foreign investments in the Chinese economy sank by more than 20%, marking the sharpest decline since 2009. Investors are disillusioned with the CCP lack of stimulus and excessive control over the economy. Chinese stock indexes rebounded due to technical factors, helped by expectations of stimulus promises following a conference with officials on Monday.
Commodities and Currencies:
- The dollar index edged down as gold prices hit a record closing above 3000.
Crypto:
- BTC, ETH and SOL registered an uptick after stocks but have still maintained their bearish trend.
The State Of Markets: In Green, primarily due to a technical correction, along with minor positive shifts in internal political settlements and an optimistic interpretation of minor economic data.
On Week 12, investors will focus on the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, economic projections, and key data like retail sales and housing indicators. Globally, rate decisions from Japan, China, the UK, and others, along with inflation and economic data, will be closely monitored.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest into your bright future without hassle.
For more on Evernomics: https://evernomics.com/
————
SVET Markets Weekly Update -February 24–28, 2025)
On Week 9, equities showed their worst performance in several years as the trade war intensified and geopolitical tensions mounted. This was compounded by the darkening macroeconomic picture, with inflation continuing to rise and consumer spending — the cornerstone of economic growth — dropping the most in two years. All around the world, investors responded with massive de-risking, which hit BTC and the rest of the crypto market particularly hard, with the Trump rally effect now either completely wiped out or reversed for the majority of altcoins.
Monday
On Monday, equities are down as manufacturing activity plummeted due to sharply rising costs and an uncertain outlook.
World’s Markets:
- European inflation hit a 6-month high, driven by energy costs. EU markets are mixed, with the defense and auto sectors up while energy is down.
- German stocks rose as traders reacted to the conservative party leading in Sunday’s election, but they may form a coalition with Scholz’s SPD.
- Brazilian equities are lower due to rising inflation and an expected BCB rate hike.
- Indian market indices have declined as well.
- The Chinese tech index is down due to Trump’s new memorandum limiting investment in domestic technologies.
Commodities and Currencies:
- The dollar, gold, and oil are flat as Zelenskiy hinted at stepping down.
Crypto:
- BTC, ETH, and SOL, along with the rest of the crypto market, are in deep red following the after-hours confirmation of the CaMex tariffs and the breaking of key technical supports.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, absorbing tariffs confirmation and German election results.
Details
- In February, the Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing activity index plummeted to -8.3 from 14.1 in January, marking a sharp decline. Production, new orders, and capacity utilization fell, while input costs surged and wage pressures eased slightly. 1Y trend: “Up” (DFed)
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.03 in January, indicating slower economic growth. Declines in personal consumption, housing, and production offset gains in employment and sales. The three-month average rose to +0.03. 1Y trend: “Up” (CFed)
World Markets
- Euro Area inflation hit 2.5% in January, the highest since July 2024, driven by rising energy costs. Core inflation held at 2.7%, while prices for services and food slowed. Monthly prices dropped 0.3%. 1Y trend: “Side” (Eurostat)
Comment: What’s Up With Politics?
If you ask me how, based on objective economic data resulting from the first month of the new White House administration, to briefly characterize its economic policy, I would say that with its wide-ranging tariffs on almost all key raw materials and long-term products, its over-centralized, highly authoritarian decision-making style, and its harsh intrusion in almost all spheres, starting from energy to education, this policy is definitely and heavily ‘pro-oligarchical.’
All those tariffs won’t replace taxes, as they only initiate new-shoring of all key production facilities or re-export through other ‘good’ countries. Not to mention that with less than 25% of GDP coming from industrial sector and the remaining 75% from services, the overall economy’s gain would be microscopic, if any, compared to the massive downsizing that would result from shutting themselves out of global markets — essential for the growth of a services-based economy. Bottom line, tariffs will only give power over consumers to several domestic corporations, which CEOs are close to centers of political power.
As for crypto, Official Trump Coin has just given us a clue as to what the policy would be — the forceful and fast siphoning of all crypto market liquidity by several ‘patriotic’ coins — basically, those which will be more actively promoted by crypto figureheads close to the current administration. SOL, XRP, Doge and Base ETH are obvious candidates for that close-knit, hand-picked group of the ‘America-first’ winners.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, tech and broader market indexes went down as Trump intended to limit Chinese chip exports, while the industrial-heavy Dow rose after data showed local expansion in the manufacturing sector, even though services contracted, which was accompanied by rising home prices indicating a resurging inflation. Tesla’s market cap fell below USD 1 trillion. Treasuries ticked down on renewed expectations of Fed easing.
World’s Markets:
- EU stocks are mixed, with tech, which followed Wall Street’s drop, in the red, and the defense sector in green as Germany forms a coalition government and talks about allocating a 200 billion military budget intensify. This also caused the euro to rise to a month high.
- The Brazilian market performed well after an easing inflation report and positive earnings reports. Indian stocks are also gaining on the back of rising financial and FMCG sectors.
- Chinese stocks stumbled after Trump’s chip restrictions were announced. The Japanese yen strengthened to a 12-week high as investors fled from the USD.
- Milei’s reforms in Argentina continued to bear fruit as the economy grew at its fastest rate in 3 years, with manufacturing and agriculture adding 8% YoY.
Commodities and Currencies:
- The dollar and oil are at their two-month lows on renewed concerns of an economic slowdown prompted by tariffs.
Crypto:
- BTC plummeted to 85K, reaching a 3-month low under the combined weight of negative macroeconomic sentiment and technical factors, followed by ETH, SOL, and the rest of the coins/tokens.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, with tech falling on chip restrictions and industrials rising on defense.
Details
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index rose 4.5% yoy in December 2024, exceeding forecasts. New York led with a 7.2% gain, while Tampa fell 1.1%. National prices grew 8.8% annually since 2020, but growth has slowed since 2021’s peak. 1Y trend: “Down” (SP)
- The Fifth District’s composite manufacturing index climbed to 6 in February, marking its first expansion after 15 months of decline, surpassing expectations of -3. New orders stabilized, shipments rebounded sharply, and employment and wage growth improved. 1Y trend: “Side” (Rich)
- The Dallas Fed’s Texas service sector index fell to 4.6 in February, its lowest since October, while revenue growth remained below average. Employment stagnated, hours worked declined, and business sentiment weakened sharply, with uncertainty surging. 1Y trend: “Side” (DFed)
Comment: The Historical Opportunity or A Hysterical Attempt?
Over the past month, the ‘America First’ policy has been cutting deeper and deeper into people’s pockets as costs are rising all over, business sentiment is falling like a rock, and the stock market has shown the worst performance in years — not to mention crypto, which was hit particularly hard given all the promises made during the pre-election period. Adding to that is a falling dollar and, of course, the economically pointless tariff war on the whole world, with some yet unclear political benefits.
At the same time, EU stocks are rising while the euro is strengthening, giving the impression that Vance’s ideological offensive against Brussels has served as a liberation trigger for long-forgotten European business ingenuity, further bolstered by ballooning military budgets. ‘America First’ has also benefited other countries; for example, in Russia, the stock markets are buoying, and the local currency has reached a 6-month high, while in China, the local AI sector has found a way to re-accelerate without Silicon Valley’s VCs.
We can say, of course, that it’s just the beginning, and after ‘initial pain,’ there will be countless benefits from reshoring, tax cuts, and reduced regulatory burdens. We can all count on the Musk miracle, of course, but economically speaking, there is almost zero probability that tariffs will replace taxes, that reduced government investments in critical sectors like alternative energy will bolster economic activity, or that lower regulatory burdens will compensate for the shutting down of international trade.
Nonetheless, all that said, even if the present ‘economic policy’ is terrible, there may be no choice because there are simply no more ideological, military, and economic resources to maintain the past global ‘projection of power’ and an overwhelming business presence. The world has grown too large and too fast for that ‘status quo’ not to be changed while rival centers of power are popping up like mushrooms after the rain.
Faced with that reality, there are no local politicians who can explain it frankly and directly to voters, bluntly saying, for example, that we are retreating because we have chickened out militarily and do not have either the muscles or the brains to maintain our leadership. ‘America Is So Back’ might well be a good enough slogan to masquerade something more truthful, but of course, less appealing to the masses, like ‘America Is So Back Under the Rock.’
Wednesday
On Wednesday, equities closed mostly in the red as home sales and building permits decreased, showing consumers’ growing distress, added by Trump’s 25% levies on EU autos announced.
World’s Markets:
- European stocks outperformed for a second day after the German elections, as gains in the energy and industrial sectors, especially defense, outweighed the downsides of new auto tariffs. This was bolstered by optimism surrounding the end of the war, as an Americana-Ukrainian minerals deal — a ‘payback’ for wartime aid — appears to be progressing.
- Brazilian markets are down due to lower unemployment, as investors expect further rate increases from the BCB.
- Chinese equities are in the green, as new economic stimulus promised by the CCP led to a rise in industrials, while tech is down due to Trump sanctions on chips.
- Argentinian retail sales rose by 17% in constant prices, up from 4% the previous month.
- Vietnam imposed tariffs on Chinese hot-rolled coils in an attempt to protect local producers and increase profits from growing exports of locally produced steel to America.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Oil and the dollar are trading lower on expectations of an economic slowdown in America caused by Trump’s inflationary policies.
Crypto:
- BTC continued to crash, hitting its 200MA at 83K. Overall, by 2025, Trump’s trade war has already wiped out USD 1 trillion from the crypto market capitalization, plunging it below USD 3T.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, with American equities continuing to underperform, especially compared to the EU.
Details
- New Home Sales fell 10.5% to 657K units in January after an 8.1% rise the prior month. Historically, monthly sales averaged 0.30% from 1963–2025, peaking at 31.20% in April 1963 and hitting a low of -33.60% in May 2010. 1Y trend: “Side”. Meanwhile, building permits dropped 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.473M in January, missing initial estimates of a 0.1% rise to 1.483M. 1Y trend: “Side”. (Census)
Thursday
On Thursday, tech stocks are down on weak earnings reports, together with the broader market including industrials in the Dow despite durables jumped to a 6-month high, driven by aircraft. Meanwhile, jobless claims rose to a 2-month high, the regional manufacturing index reached a 5-month low, and the economy decelerated to 2.3% — slowed expansion over 3 quarters — as exports fell and investments contracted despite increased consumer spending and government expenditures. The economic picture was further darkened by a rise to 2.3% in core PCE — the first increase in four quarters — and sharply dropping home sales for the second month in a row.
World’s Markets:
- EU stocks are in the red after 25% tariffs on all imports were announced, with autos and tech hit particularly hard.
- French unemployment skyrocketed by approximately 200K — 80% among those aged below 25 — marking the sharpest rise in recorded history, except for 2020.
- Spanish inflation increased for the 5th month in a row, driven by electricity prices.
- UK car production is down 18% compared to a year ago, due to weakening domestic and international demand.
- The Brazilian real weakened slightly amid investor concerns over mounting government expenditures without backing it up with revenues. The local market is also in the red due to high unemployment, which jumped to 6.5% from 6.2%, and disappointing corporate reporting, especially from Petrobras.
- The Indian market is flat as metals and banks advanced on rising rates while autos fell due to tariffs.
- Chinese stocks are mixed as traders await next week’s government sessions to outline their stimulus policies.
- South African producer inflation accelerates, led by food.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Gas prices increased in Europe, reflecting concerns that American LNG costs will rise. Copper prices jumped as new Trump levies loomed over it.
Crypto:
- BTC is slumping further down to 80K, joined by the rest of the market in a continuing sell-off, as industry participants reassess their positions in light of Trump’s ongoing trade war and politicians further delaying BTC reserves and regulatory clarity.
The State Of Markets: Down, the intensifying trade war is leading to higher producers’ costs and rising consumer inflation, preventing central banks from easing rate pressure.
Comment: EU Is So Back?
According to objective economic data, the initiation of the trade war against the whole world has suddenly played heavily into the hands of Europeans, Chinese and Brazilians. It is reminiscent of what happened to the Russian economy after all major Western brands withdrew from the local market, freeing it for domestic producers.
Similarly, Trump’s “sanctioning” of Europe and China might now free market niches for local industries as American corporations are forced to re-shore their production back home, which sharply increases costs and decreases their competitiveness in foreign markets.
Smaller countries not yet sanctioned by Trump are in a particularly privileged position as they can now have the best of both worlds — shielded from American competition, they can still continue to produce for both internal and American markets.
That is perfectly logical from a macroeconomic point of view. The era of American corporate dominance ended right after the American political class recognized that it did not have enough military and financial power to keep dominating literally all the world’s markets. So, now America’s piece of the global wealth pie is destined to be reduced as multiple competitors continue to claim larger and larger portions of it.
Despite all the talk about “competing with China,” there is not going to be any “competition”; it will be only the “organized retreat” — deciding how much of the world’s pie America could afford to itself to defend.
Friday
On Friday, major indexes rebounded on technical buying as the core PCE index eased, but consumer spending dropped for the first time in two years. Meanwhile, the trade deficit ballooned to new records due to increased purchases of industrial supplies ahead of tariffs.
World’s Markets:
- EU stocks are slightly down, with tech declining while manufacturers gained a bit on good reports and a decrease in inflationary expectations.
- The Brazilian market closed in negative territory ahead of the Carnival holiday’s slowdown, and government bonds traded at a 10-year high amid budgetary concerns.
- Indian stocks dropped, led by tech and FMCG, as foreign investors excited, expecting a trade war despite the economy accelerating and becoming the fastest growing in the G20, bolstered by increasing consumption and government expenditure.
- Chinese equities declined as tariffs continued to weigh on the market while the AI rally took a pause.
Commodities and Currencies:
- The dollar strengthened while gold ticked down as the number of expected Fed rate cuts reduced.
Crypto:
- BTC rebounded slightly after hitting 80K, but the overall crypto market still remained in the red.
The State Of Markets: Mostly down, investors continued to risk-off, faced with the looming trade war, rising inflation, and slowing consumer spending.
On Week 9, investors will watch the labor report, trade tariffs, ISM PMI, factory orders, and Fed speeches. Euro Area highlights include ECB rates, inflation, and unemployment. Key data on rates, inflation, GDP, and trade will emerge globally.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest into your bright future without hassle.
For more on Evernomics: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update (February 17–21, 2025)
On Week 8, equities are deep in the red as Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical games start to worsen economic data and devalue the dollar. EU markets are mixed, with defense stocks up following Vance’s Munich speech, while tariffs suppress auto and other sectors amid looming German elections. The world’s markets are mostly in the red, led by Indian stocks dragged down by tariff-sensitive resources and pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, Chinese markets performed well due to PBoC easing and a continuing AI rally. Gold and silver are up as investors de-risk. BTC, ETH, and SOL still can’t recover after Trump’s tariffs plunge a month ago.
Monday
On Monday, with main markets closed for a holiday, EU defense equities surged on expectations of increased military spending following Vance’s Munich speech. Gold and oil are fluctuating amid growing anticipation of Ukraine war peace talks. BTC is declining as institutional investors continue to de-risk. SOL has been hit the hardest as ETH outperformed, allegedly due to large purchases by some private funds.
Crypto
- Digital asset investments saw $415M in outflows after a 19-week $29.4B inflow streak, likely due to a hawkish Fed stance and high US inflation. BTC led outflows at $430m, while Solana, XRP, and Sui saw inflows. 1Y trend: “Side” (source)
World Markets
- European stocks rallied on Monday, hitting new record highs. Defense stocks surged amid expectations of increased defense spending after Vance’s Munich speech. Peace negotiations on Ukraine are set to begin. Trump reaffirmed plans to impose tariffs on foreign cars. 1Y trend: “Up”
- In December 2024, the Euro Area achieved a trade surplus of €15,467.70M. Historically, the trade balance averaged €5,649.61M (1999–2024), peaking at €29,946.10M in July 2015 and hitting a low of -€54,922.70M in August 2022. 1Y trend: “Side” (Eurostat)
Comment: What’s Up With DOGE? (again)
Within Accenture, during the era of “business process re-engineering,” we categorized client projects based on a 2×2 matrix. The horizontal axis represented the client’s budget, ranging from no budget to an unlimited one, while the vertical axis represented the client’s needs, from “not needed at all” to “very urgent.”
I suspect that Elon Musk does not perceive his current interactions with governmental bodies as a “re-engineering” endeavor. I believe his approach is closer to a crusade, and his core team likely consists not of business process experts, but of bug-hunters who see themselves as “people’s auditors.”
If I were to classify Musk’s current governmental involvement using our framework, I would place it squarely in the fourth quadrant: “high-need, low-budget.” The term “budget” here encompasses not only financial resources but, more crucially, the time required to re-engineer a vast organization like the bureaucratic apparatus of the world’s largest economy. Even a four-year timeframe (I am not sure Musk has so much time for his escapades) is insufficient for this task, especially lacking the necessary experience and broad political agreement.
Consequently, Musk will likely focus on easily achievable and attention-grabbing initiatives. He will likely overlook the more complex task of achieving substantial improvements in government effectiveness and reductions in long-term costs. This ultimately means that the primary political objective — reducing government spending to curb inflation — will remain elusive. Only systemic, far-reaching changes to the government’s “business processes” can significantly reduce government expenses and meaningfully impact inflation.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities were mixed as the holiday-shortened week started, with the S&P and Nasdaq near flat and the Dow down. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity grew above expectations as traders weighed delayed levies, Ukraine peace prospects, and bearish comments from the Fed. European stock indices hit ATH amid optimism over peace talks. Markets in Brazil are rising, boosted by Lula’s plan for infrastructure investments and delayed tariffs. The Indian market is stalling while capital outflow continues as the RBI eases policies and investors expect Trump’s tariffs on chemicals, metals, and autos to be enacted in April. Hong Kong stocks surged after Xi met with tech leaders and promised support to rival American competitors. The resource-driven and China-dependent market in Australia is down as the RBA cuts its rate for the first time since 2020. Its counterparts — markets in South Africa and Nigeria — fluctuated as, correspondingly in those countries, unemployment and inflation pressure eased slightly. Oil, gold, and silver are up marginally, remaining in a weekly side trend amid uncertain outcomes of geopolitical developments. BTC, SOL, and ETH continued to decline amid technical factors and growing bearish sentiment.
The State Of The World Market: Volatile, fearing a downside on a slowing economy but hopeful on the geopolitics.
Details
- The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to +5.7 in February, beating forecasts and indicating a slight rebound. New orders and shipments grew, but employment fell. Input costs surged, while business optimism declined despite expectations of future improvement. 1Y trend: “Side” (NYFed)
- The NAHB Housing Market Index dropped to 42 in February, a five-month low, due to tariff concerns, high mortgage rates, and housing costs. Current sales, future expectations, and buyer traffic all declined, reflecting weakened builder optimism. 1Y trend: “Down” (Nahb)
World Markets
- Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to +26 in February, its highest since July 2024, exceeding forecasts of +20. Optimism grew over the new government’s potential and improved private consumption and construction sector outlooks, though current economic conditions stayed weak. 1Y trend: “Down” (ZEW)
- South Africa’s unemployment rate dropped to 31.9% in Q4 2024, the lowest since Q3 2023, as employment rose to 17.078M. Finance and manufacturing sectors saw job gains, while youth unemployment fell to 59.6%, a one-year low. 1Y trend: “Down” (Statssa)
Currencies
- The euro fell to $1.45 amid concerns over rising defense spending’s impact on inflation and rates. European leaders discussed Ukraine support but took no concrete steps, while the ECB is expected to cut rates three times, potentially below 2% by 2026. FYI: Additional military expenditure for the next 10 years is estimated at USD 3.1T. Combined EU yearly GDP is about USD 25–30T. Top five EU economies’ GDP is about USD 15T (Germany: $4.5T; UK: $3.5T; France: $3.3T; Italy: $2.2T; Spain: $1.6T). So defense expenditures are expected to stay at 2–3% of combined EU yearly GDP or twice of that for leading economies. 1Y trend: “Down, Depreciated”
Commodities
Silver prices edged higher to near $32.5 per ounce , continuing their recent range-bound trading. Global trade uncertainties and safe-haven demand supported silver. Trump’s tariff threats and the ongoing Ukraine war added to the uncertainty. Strong industrial demand, especially from the solar and wind power sectors, also boosted silver prices. 1Y trend: “Up”
Wednesday
On Wednesday, equities are up, with the Nasdaq and S&P making new ATHs, as housing starts decline sharply and despite new tariff threats and FOMC minutes showing the majority on a rate-cutting pause in view of tariffs. Japanese markets are down, keeping inside of their narrow 12-month-old side-range after the BoJ started its rate hike. Australian shares hit a one-month low on tariffs, with the jobless rate the highest in 3 months. The EU’s, as well as Canadian, Brazilian, and Indian stock markets, are down as auto, chip, and drug stocks were pressured by Trump’s new levies. The South African rand keeps depreciating on slow growth, high debts, and a budget deficit. Chinese equities are in the green on a continuing DeepSeek rally. Natural gas surged to a 5-year high on cold weather. Lumber keeps rising on tariffs. BTC, SOL, and ETH are in slight green but still in a bear trend. Other news: Microsoft introduced a quantum chip.
The State of the World Market: Mostly Down, suppressed by new tariffs, rising inflation and mounting debts.
Details
- Housing starts dropped 9.8% MoM to an annualized 1.366M units in January, after a revised 16.1% surge in December. Historically, housing starts have averaged 0.31% since 1959, peaking at 29.3% in July 1982. 1Y trend: “Side” (Census)
- Fed policymakers urged caution in adjusting monetary policy amid high uncertainty. Some favored maintaining restrictive rates if inflation stayed high, while others supported easing if growth slowed. Upside inflation risks were noted. Rates held at 4.25%-4.5%. 1Y trend: “Down” (Fed)
Crypto
- Microsoft introduced Majorana 1, a quantum chip leveraging topological superconductivity, a unique state of matter. The chip uses a custom topoconductor to control Majorana particles, advancing quantum computing. It requires extreme cooling and precision. (source)
World Markets
- China’s FDI fell 13.4% YoY to CNY 98B in January 2025, marking the weakest start in four years. Declining foreign confidence, deflation risks, and opaque balance sheets persisted, though government support and tech sector easing boosted sentiment. 1Y trend: “Down” (CN
- The People’s Bank of China held key lending rates steady for the fourth month in February, keeping the one-year LPR at 3.1% and the five-year LPR at 3.6%, both at record lows. The decision aligns with market expectations amid yuan pressure and trade tensions. Last week, the PBoC hinted at future policy adjustments to support the economy. 1Y trend: “Down” (PBC)
Currencies
- The South African rand fell to an over two-week low of 18.6 per USD after Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s budget speech was postponed, the first delay in three decades. Coalition divisions deepened as the Democratic Alliance opposed a VAT hike, complicating fiscal reforms amid economic challenges, which include slow growth and high debts, exacerbated by budget deficit which was caused by expanding social programs and support for state-owned enterprises. 1Y trend: “Side”
Commodities
- Natural gas futures surged over 7% to $4.36/MMBtu, hitting a December 2022 high amid extreme cold boosting demand and disrupting output. Prices rose for seven days, the longest streak since July 2021, with a 29% weekly gain lifting gas producer stocks. The oil-to-gas ratio fell to 17-to-1, its lowest since December 2022, reflecting gas’s strength. Analysts expect cold weather to sustain high demand through February 22. 1Y trend: “Side”
- Lumber futures neared $620 per thousand board feet in February, the highest since October 2022, driven by tight supply and tariff concerns. North American production fell in 2024 due to sawmill closures, while tariff hikes on Canadian lumber risked price spikes (up to 40%). 1Y trend: “Up”
Thursday
On Thursday, equities closed in the red on earnings, despite rising jobless claims and falling manufacturing. Palantir dropped due to expected Pentagon budget cuts. In Europe, construction output continued to decline while consumer confidence is rising in anticipation of the ECB easing rates. EU stocks are mixed as traders assess corporate profits, with chip stocks going up while FMCG stocks went down. The Brazilian market is neutral, while Indian stocks are down due to selling in IT and banks. Chinese equities are in the red on profit-taking. The Japanese yen is at a two-month high as the flight from USD assets intensifies amid Trump’s ‘aggressive negotiation’ tactics. Oil prices are rising while the dollar is down, as tariffs and rate projections remain uncertain. Gold has reached a new ATH amid ongoing risk-off sentiment. BTC, SOL, and ETH are in the green on cautious buying. SOL continues to struggle after a sharp decline in meme coin trading.
The State of the World Market: Down, investors fleeing to safety from US assets amid growing geopolitical and economic worries.
Details
- Initial jobless claims rose to 219K for the week ending February 15th, exceeding forecasts of 215K. The labor market remains tight, though federal employees affected by DOGE layoffs are excluded from state data. 1Y trend: “Up” (DOL)
- The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 18.1 in February from 44.3 in January, missing forecasts of 20. While activity expanded, growth slowed as new orders, shipments, and employment eased. Price pressures rose, and six-month growth expectations softened. 1Y trend: “Up” (PhFed)
Crypto
- Meme tokens, typically buoyed by strong BTC performance, have seen subdued volumes and declining interest as BTC trades sideways. Most cult tokens have lost over 70% of their value, with SPX6900 being an exception. Overall crypto open interest has dropped to $63.95B from December’s $94B peak, with meme tokens like PEPE, WIF, and BONK experiencing significant outflows. Traders are shifting focus to airdrops and older coins, reducing meme token mindshare. (source)
World Markets
- Euro Area construction output fell 0.1% YoY in December 2024, with declines in specialized activities (-1.4%), buildings (0.1%), and civil engineering (2%). France and Italy saw drops, while Germany and Spain rebounded. Annual output declined 0.9%. 1Y trend: “Up” (Eurostat)
- Euro Area consumer confidence rose to -13.6 in February, a four-month high, surpassing expectations of -14. Optimism grew as the ECB is expected to cut rates further, with forecasts suggesting rates below 2% by 2026. EU sentiment also improved to -12.9. 1Y trend: “Up” (EU)
Currencies
- The yen strengthened past 149 per dollar, hitting a two-month high as expectations of a BoJ rate hike and global uncertainties boosted demand. BoJ’s Takata hinted at further policy adjustments, while Japan’s GDP growth and upcoming inflation data added optimism. Trade tensions and geopolitical risks also supported the safe-haven currency. 1Y trend: “Side”
Commodities
- Gold hit a record high above $2,950 per ounce amid rising global uncertainties, fueled by escalating trade tensions from Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical risks. FOMC minutes noted inflation concerns, delaying rate cuts, while Trump’s comments on Ukraine added to market unease. 1Y trend: “UP”
Comment: What’s Up With Trexit?
Vance’s speech in front of Brussels’ entrenched bureaucrats signifies that a new generation of politicians — much younger but no less greedy — is taking hold of the world.
Since 2017, I have been writing about the upcoming generational shift and its implications for the economy and politics. This shift occurs in cycles: four smaller ones every 20–25 years and one large cycle every 80–100 years. Each generation tends to adopt ideologies and strategies that are oppositional to those of the preceding one. For example, Musk/Vance/Hegseth and the Millennial generation may lean toward authoritarianism, contrasting with Boomers’ tolerance.
The new White House administration has already implemented substantial tariffs and divisive rhetoric. While some believe this is empty talk, I contend that worldwide conflicts are inevitable due to the desires of a generation seeking rapid change.
From an evolutionary perspective, humans are designed to adapt. With the global population now at 8 billion, competition for resources has intensified. Globalization has pushed many out of lucrative jobs, leaving a small number of moguls in control.
Decentralization will offer more opportunities for local talents to prosper, as they will only need to compete with their immediate neighbors instead of the entire world. While corporations will continue to exist, the fight among them will become fiercer, allowing room for small businesses. This results in a precarious but inevitable evolution that could eventually lead to a new global order.
Friday
On Friday, equities plummeted as consumer sentiment and business activity dropped sharply to a 17-month low on tariffs, spending cuts, and hectic Trump’s politics blowing up inflation expectations to a one-year high.
World’s Markets:
- EU manufacturing continued to contract at a slower pace while services growth slowed.
- EU stocks are flat, positioning for Germany’s Sunday election, where right-wing parties, headed by CDU, CSU, and far-right AfD, are leading.
- The Brazilian market closed in red as retailers went down due to tariffs resetting long-term growth perspectives, despite still growing revenues.
- The Indian market ticked down again, dragged by finance, auto, and pharma on tariff expectations, despite the local economy continuing to expand.
- Chinese equities rallied, hitting a 7-week high on AI optimism and PBoC liquidity injections. This was joined by Japan’s stocks led by tech, despite inflation hitting a 2-year high.
- Mexican GDP growth is the lowest in 3 years.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Gold is hanging near ATH as oil goes down on a looming global economic depression, even as supply concerns rise due to volatile geopolitics.
- The dollar is depreciating on economic worries.
Crypto: BTC, ETH, and SOL dropped on stocks and the ByBit hack. The crypto market has stayed in the red for a month, unable to recover after the end-of-January risk-off Trump’s tariffs crash.
The State of the World Market: Deeper Down, investors’ unease on hectic Trump’s politics is increasing as data shows an accelerating economic downturn. Meanwhile, Chinese market stood out supported by AI and PBoC.
Details
- The S&P Global US Composite PMI fell sharply to 50.4 in February from 52.7, signaling near-stagnation in the private sector. Service sector contraction offset manufacturing gains, weakening new orders and employment. Input costs rose, while business optimism hit a near two-year low amid policy and economic concerns. 1Y trend: “Up” (PMI)
- The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the was revised down to 64.7 in February, the lowest since November 2023. Declines were seen across age, income, and wealth groups, driven by fears of tariff-induced price hikes and rising inflation expectations. 1Y trend: “Down”
Crypto
- Arkham Intelligence reported that the Lazarus Group hacked Bybit for over $1.5B, citing evidence from online sleuth ZachXBT. Bybit confirmed the breach, assuring client withdrawals would be processed. This marks the largest single crypto theft in history. (source)
World Markets
- The HCOB Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.3 in February 2025 from 46.6, exceeding forecasts. The sector’s downturn eased to a nine-month low, with slower production declines, falling new orders, and reduced workforce numbers. Input prices rose, while selling prices and business sentiment dipped. Source: S&P Global. 1Y trend: “Up” (SP)
Comment: On A Strategy of The Betrayal.
This week, crazy geopolitical developments are reminiscent of eighteenth-century war games played on European terrain, with their pawn armies driven by kings and royal courts’ cliques, motivated by selfish ambitions, national pride, and military voluntarism. Machiavellian ‘the ends justify the means’ is a hashtag in almost every latest political tweet. Munich 2.0 — an attempt to redirect resources to the Pacific front by sacrificing elementary ethical and humanitarian considerations to accounting reasoning — may or may not play out as well as Munich 1.0. One thing is clear, however, from the latest economic data: both investors and consumers do not appreciate interference with their basic necessities. Might this be the first call for multitudes to start seeing the light of day and to understand that giving so much power to one individual is the worst idea that has ever come into humanity’s collective mind?
On Week 9, investors will focus on Fed speeches, major economic data (PCE, GDP, consumer sentiment), and housing metrics. Globally, inflation figures, GDP growth, and key indicators like Germany’s Ifo Index and retail sales will be in the spotlight.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest into your bright future without hassle.
SVET Markets Weekly Update – February 10th–14th, 2025
On Week 7, tariffs pushed up prices for steel, aluminum, gold, silver, and oil. Stocks rallied as Trump delayed reciprocal levies and initiated peace talks regarding Ukraine, leading to a resurgence in EU equities and a decline in the dollar and oil. BTC, SOL, and ETH remained near their monthly lows as traders navigated political uncertainties.
Monday
On Monday, equities rose as investors adapted to Trump’s threats of levies, focusing instead on gains in the tech sector, bolstered by AI chipmakers. Steel surged due to tariff plans, while stocks increased across the EU and Asia, particularly in tech. The dollar, gold, oil, aluminum, and other commodities rose in response to the tariffs. BTC, ETH, and SOL prices stabilized despite widespread bearish sentiment.
World Markets
Mexico’s auto exports fell 13.7% YoY to 219,414 units in January, hitting a three-year low. GM, Nissan, Stellantis, and Volkswagen saw sharp declines, while Toyota surged. The USA remained the top destination, receiving 83.6% of exports.
Commodities
Gold hit a record high above $2,900/oz, driven by safe-haven demand amid Trump’s new tariffs, trade war fears, and expectations of looser global monetary policy. Central bank purchases, including the PBoC, further bolstered prices.
WTI crude rose 1.3% to $72.3/barrel amid supply concerns from Trump’s sanctions on Iranian oil shipments. Trade tensions and China’s retaliatory tariffs capped gains, keeping markets cautious.
Comment: What’s Up With Autocrats ?
The world is divided into two unequal parts: one that believes a single head is better than many and another that thinks otherwise. Historically, the former has dramatically prevailed. The annals of history are essentially a chronicle of megalomaniacs — autocrats who have brought us the prosperity we enjoy today and, according to the first part of the world, will continue to pave the way for a brighter future.
On the other hand, the second part of the world argues that it is individual ingenuity, talent, and entrepreneurship that have shaped history. They view autocrats as leeches who exploit social cohesion to seize power and accumulate wealth at the expense of others. Who is right? That may be determined in the next 10 to 20 years, perhaps through another total war or, hopefully, through technological and economic competition. Yet, it is unlikely that a clear answer will emerge. Humans are not machines — at least, not yet. Our nature is inherently controversial, which is essential for survival. Therefore, it is better for us to remain contentious without spiraling into thermonuclear conflict over these differences.
I believe the future will be decentralized, allowing individuals to choose where and how to live based on their circumstances, performance, and age. If we indeed remain divided for an extended period, I hope one side will remember that their autocrats’ primary role is to manage competing interests — essentially, to maintain a democracy within their own royal courts. Conversely, those in the second part should not forget that all technical and social advancements have been made by alliances led by megalomaniacs.
Perhaps the solution lies in avoiding the creation of centralized bureaucratic positions altogether — finding ways to redirect the talents of megalomaniacs toward exploration of new planets, so to speak. But this is merely my opinion, coming from the perspective of Part Two, of course 🙂
Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities closed marginally higher as Powell remarked on the ‘strong economy,’ while small business owner optimism tumbled due to uncertainty over Trump’s policies. Steel and aluminum stocks were boosted by tariffs. Tesla’s stock dropped following its earnings report. The dollar, oil, gold, and silver continued to rise amidst the trade war. BTC, ETH, and SOL fluctuated as traders remained indecisive.
Details
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 102.8 in January from 105.1 in December 2024, missing forecasts of 104.6. Owners remain hopeful but face hiring challenges, inflation concerns, and reduced capital investment plans.
Crypto
The Central African Republic’s memecoin, CAR, plummeted nearly 97% from its peak within 24 hours. Initially surging, it collapsed amid skepticism about its legitimacy. Despite the dramatic fall, the country’s President continues to promote the token.
World Markets
Mexico’s industrial output fell 2.7% YoY in December, marking the fifth straight decline. Construction, mining, and manufacturing dropped, while utilities grew slower. Monthly production fell 1.4%, missing forecasts. Annual 2024 output rose 0.2%.
Currencies
The Indian rupee rose to 86.8/USD, supported by RBI intervention after hitting record lows near 88. Despite recovery, it remains Asia’s worst-performing currency due to foreign outflows and slow growth. Tariffs and RBI rate cuts add pressure.
The offshore yuan weakened as the dollar strengthened following new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. China retaliated with tariffs on coal, LNG, and crude oil.
Commodities
Silver stayed near $32/ounce, close to 3-month highs, driven by safe-haven demand after tariffs on steel and aluminum. Investors await inflation data and Powell’s comments, while industrial demand and supply deficits support prices.
Brent crude oil prices rose, driven by tighter Russian supply and rising geopolitical risks. New sanctions on Iran and the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East supported prices. However, gains were limited by tariff concerns and broader economic uncertainty.
Comment: What’s Up With Tariffs?
If politicians are trying to address the issue of 30K to 50K unemployed industrial workers by increasing domestic manufacturing, then they are embarking on a very long and complicated journey. The previous administration’s blatant disregard for this issue has cost them dearly. The idea of training former steel workers to program in Go was absurd from the start. However, while tariffs may momentarily protect certain industries, they are more likely to simply shift production to non-tariff countries, leading to further delays in addressing the issue.
A better solution would be UBI, but the current administration’s rigid adherence to Darwinian capitalism prohibits this approach. As a result, tariffs ultimately fail to benefit the working population.
What about the suggestion to devalue the dollar by 20%, as some economists close to Trump advocate? If the Fed supports this move, devaluing the dollar wouldn’t be particularly challenging — no tariffs would even be necessary. However, if the Fed does not cooperate, then implementing tariffs could trigger more restrictive monetary policies, negating the intended benefits of the tariffs. In this scenario, tariffs become counterproductive. Unless, of course, tariffs are weaponized for the sake of not only external but also internal politics.
As a geopolitical tool, tariffs might have some effectiveness, but history shows that when ‘national pride’ is at stake, rational considerations often go out the window. No local politician wants to be publicly humiliated by yielding to Trump’s tariff threats for any extended period. Thus, tariffs would be counterproductive in that context as well.
Ultimately, we are left with the reality of political games and pure populism boosting approval ratings. In this regard, tariffs may serve a purpose, but they don’t solve the underlying issues.
FYI: Services account for a growing share of global trade but commodities still dominate it, accounting for the 75–80%. This includes goods like raw materials (minerals, agricultural products), manufactured goods, and fuels. However, globally, manufacturing contributes approximately only 15–17% to global GDP. So, surprisingly, commodities tariffs influence on stocks markets worldwide might be very limited.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, stocks ended mixed, pressured by core inflation rising by 0.5%, but supported by House Speaker comments regarding tariff exemptions. The dollar strengthened following the CPI report. The EU Market Index reached a 25-year high, as European stocks outperformed American equities due to Trump’s economic policies. BTC, ETH, and SOL remained in a bearish trend.
Details
Annual inflation rose to 3% in January, exceeding forecasts and December’s 2.9%, signaling stalled progress. Energy costs increased 1%, while core inflation climbed to 3.3%. Shelter and transportation costs drove the rise.
Crypto
Robinhood’s Q4 crypto trading volume soared 400% to $70B, driven by BTC surpassing $100K and renewed crypto interest. Total transaction revenue doubled to $672M, with crypto revenue surging 700% to $358M and equity revenue up 144% to $61M.
World Markets
European stocks hit new highs as strong earnings offset Fed hawkishness. The STOXX 50 gained 0.3%, nearing a 25-year peak, while the STOXX 600 edged up 0.1%. Heineken, Kering, and banks like Santander led gains.
India’s industrial production grew 3.2% YoY in December 2024, below forecasts of 3.9%, slowing from November’s revised 5%. Manufacturing eased to 3%, while mining and electricity rose.
Currencies
The dollar index neared 108.5, its highest in over a week, as CPI data revealed rising inflation, with headline at 3% and core at 3.3%. The Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, with Powell reiterating no rush. Traders expect only a 25 bps cut by December. Trump urged lower rates, linking them to tariffs.
Comment: What’s Up With AI?
We — those of us who think for a living — are not all going to be unemployed because of AI. That belief is fundamentally misguided. Throughout history, new technologies have never resulted in a net loss of jobs. Instead, they have always prompted people to acquire new skills, and the number of jobs has only increased.
Consider the transition from typewriters to computers. One person with a typewriter has evolved into several individuals: those who input text (analysts), correct it and add images (assistants), create PowerPoint presentations and spread it (consultants). The same dynamic will occur with AI. For every person who currently generates analytical reports, there will be many others involved in sorting and fine-tuning information for AI (training it), crafting prompts, and interpreting its results.
So, analysts, secretaries, and traders can relax. Do not buy into the mainstream media hysteria — AI is not coming for your jobs, not yet 🙂
Thursday
On Thursday, stocks closed higher despite rising producer inflation and falling jobless claims, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish stance. European equities rallied on hopes for a war resolution after Trump’s press conference. EU manufacturing slowdown continued but decelerated. BTC, SOL, and ETH fluctuated in bearish territory.
Details
Annual core producer inflation was 3.6% in January, slightly below December’s revised 3.7% but above market forecasts of 3.3%.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 213K in early February, below forecasts, signaling labor market strength.
World Markets
Eurozone industrial production fell 2.0% YoY in December 2024, less than the expected 3.1% decline. European stocks surged on strong earnings and hopes for a Ukraine conflict resolution. The STOXX 50 hit a 25-year high, rising 1.7%, while the STOXX 600 gained 1.1%. Autos and tech led gains.
Japan’s producer prices rose 4.2% YoY in January, the highest since May 2023, marking the 12th straight month of producer inflation.
Comment: What’s Up With Inflation?
This fourth uptick in annual inflation could indeed be a game changer for crypto. Inflation crossing 3% sends a strong signal to the Fed that its easing policy must not only be halted but also reversed. Of course, the Fed bears responsibility for the inflation itself, as all business owners have simply priced in the Fed’s rates and passed those costs on to consumers. Naturally, trade wars and the endless geopolitical havoc also do not help to ease food and energy prices. With the economy, particularly the manufacturing sector, continuing to slow down, it appears my predictions from nearly two years ago have come true: we are entering an era of prolonged stagflation. This could have mixed implications for crypto, depending on the Fed’s actions.
If the Fed reverses its policy and begins tightening on its nearest meetings, it could trigger a new bear market for stocks, which would likely affect crypto as well. This is currently the most probable outcome. The less likely scenario is that the Fed will maintain rates at their current level for two to four sessions, till, roughly Q4. If that happens, we may have a bit more time to take profits.
Friday
On Friday, markets closed mixed as retail sales plummeted due to cold weather and LA fires, while manufacturing continued to decline. The dollar and oil fell on prospects of EU peace talks and delayed reciprocal tariffs. Europe’s GDP rose, though the German economy remained stagnant. Chinese banks issued a record amount of new loans as the PBoC pledged economic stimulus. Argentina’s inflation fell tenfold compared to a year ago due to Milei’s reforms. BTC, ETH, and SOL showed technical gains.
Details
Retail sales fell 0.9% in January, the largest drop since March 2023, missing forecasts of a 0.1% decline.
Manufacturing production rose 1% YoY in January, rebounding from a 0.1% decline.
World Markets
Chinese banks issued a record CNY 5.13T in new loans in January, driven by policy stimulus. Eurozone GDP grew 0.9% annually in Q4 2024, the fastest expansion since early 2023. Argentina’s annual inflation slowed to 84.5%, the ninth straight decline.
On Week 8, investors will focus on FOMC minutes, Fed speeches, and housing data, alongside S&P Global PMI and Trump’s new tariff initiatives. Global highlights include rate decisions in Australia, New Zealand, and China; inflation data from Canada, UK, South Africa, and Japan; and PMI figures for major economies.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update – February 3rd–7th, 2025
On Week 5, Trump’s tariffs were front and center, moving markets up and down depending on geopolitical maneuvering as he threatened, imposed, or postponed levies on Mexico, Canada, China, Brazil, and the EU. The dollar index fluctuated between 108 and 110 before reaching a two-week high. Gold hit new all-time highs, while economic growth slowed, and the trade deficit widened to its highest level since March 2022. The unemployment rate dropped to 4%, strengthening Powell’s hawkish stance, leading to a sharp market correction on Friday. BTC, SOL, and ETH entered a technically bearish zone. The global economy continued to weaken, with more central banks, including Britain and India, shifting to a dovish stance.
Monday
Markets opened with a sharp drop but closed higher after Trump delayed the introduction of tariffs. However, the threat of retaliation continues to weigh on sentiment. PMI data showed manufacturing growth for the first time in two years, strengthening the position of FOMC hawks. The dollar and oil prices fluctuated due to Trump’s shifting tariff stance and pressure on OPEC. Gold reached a new all-time high amid market volatility, while EU inflation rose due to higher energy costs. Lumber and gas prices surged, correlating with imports from Canada and Mexico. BTC reclaimed the $100K level, and ETH rebounded to $3K after a sharp correction, fueled by speculation about politically affiliated funds accumulating ETH.
Details
The ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January, up from 49.2 in December, marking the first expansion after 26 months of contraction. New orders, production, and employment rose, while inventories fell and price pressures increased.
Crypto
Trump’s World Liberty Finance bought 86K ETH (worth $220M) in eight hours, raising its total ETH holdings to $420M. The purchase, made during a market downturn, has sparked speculation about strategic timing. ETH now represents 65% of its portfolio.
World Markets
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for January rose to 46.6, marking the slowest decline since May 2024. Output and new orders fell at a slower pace, but job losses accelerated. Input costs rose, while output prices remained unchanged. Business sentiment improved, reaching its highest level since February 2022.
Euro Area inflation rose to 2.5% in January, up from 2.4% in December, exceeding expectations. Energy costs surged, while services and food inflation slowed. Core inflation held at 2.7%, its lowest since early 2022.
Currencies
The dollar index fluctuated after Trump delayed Mexico tariffs, easing fears of trade barriers. Meanwhile, ISM data showed factory activity expanding for the first time in over two years, challenging expectations of Fed rate cuts.
The South African rand fell 2% to around 19 per USD after Trump halted aid, citing concerns over land reforms and policy stability. Ongoing power outages continue to hinder economic growth.
Commodities
Gold hit a new record $2,820 per ounce as trade uncertainty persisted. Trump delayed Mexico tariffs but imposed levies on China and Canada, fueling safe-haven demand. Markets expect two Fed rate cuts this year.
WTI crude futures hovered near $73 per barrel as OPEC+ confirmed gradual output hikes. Trump urged OPEC to boost supply to counter high prices, while new tariffs added trade uncertainty.
Lumber futures surged above $630 per thousand board feet after Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, a key supplier. The 25% tariff, combined with existing duties, pressures domestic supply. Meanwhile, Fed rate cut expectations eased mortgage rates below 7%, supporting construction demand.
Natural gas futures surged 10%, recovering from last week’s decline. Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil raised concerns about supply disruptions. The EIA reported a significant gas withdrawal due to extreme cold weather.
Tuesday
Equities closed higher as weaker job openings data and falling factory orders fueled optimism about potential rate cuts. Gold hit another all-time high due to tariffs and central bank easing. The Indian rupee devalued amid capital outflows, while China’s yuan weakened. BTC, SOL, and ETH began recovering from the Feb 2 flash crash.
Details
Job openings fell to 7.6M in December 2024, missing expectations. Decreases were seen in professional services, healthcare, and finance, while hires increased.
Manufactured goods orders fell 0.9% to $578.5B in December 2024, the sharpest decline since June, driven by a drop in transportation and primary metals.
Crypto
ETH ETF trading volume surged to a record $1.5B, up 23% from its previous high. BlackRock’s ETHA led with $736M in trades, while spot ETH ETFs saw $84M in net inflows, totaling $10B in assets.
Currencies
The offshore yuan fell to 7.32 per dollar as China imposed tariffs on U.S. imports, including coal, LNG, crude oil, and cars, retaliating against Trump’s levies.
The Indian rupee slipped to 87.07 against the USD as China’s retaliatory tariffs weighed on emerging markets. Crude oil’s rise and foreign outflows added pressure.
Commodities
Gold reached a new all-time high above $2,840 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. Weak job openings data and falling factory orders further boosted gold.
Wednesday
Equities rose as falling business optimism and slowing services growth fueled expectations of Fed easing. Nvidia and Amgen surged, while Alphabet and AMD dropped on weak earnings. Imports hit a record high amid tariff expectations. EU private businesses showed growth for the first time in six months, while China’s services sector slowed.
Details
Private businesses added 183K jobs in January, surpassing forecasts. Services led with 190K hires, while goods-producing sectors lost jobs.
The trade deficit widened to $98.4B in December, the highest since March 2022, as imports surged while exports fell.
Thursday
Markets ended mixed, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising while the Dow fell. Bank stocks gained, while Ford and Honeywell declined. The dollar rose after a comment by Bessent prioritizing lower Treasury yields over Fed rate cuts. The Bank of England and the Bank of Mexico cut rates in response to slowing economies. Chinese tech stocks rallied, fueled by enthusiasm for local AI advancements.
Details
Job cuts rose to 49,795 in January, up from December but down 40% YoY. The tech sector led in layoffs.
Initial jobless claims rose to 219K, exceeding forecasts, with increases seen in New York and California.
Friday
Markets declined due to additional tariff threats and rising unemployment, while consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low. The dollar rose on tariff concerns. The Reserve Bank of India cut rates for the first time in five years. BTC, SOL, and ETH traded lower, with some traders turning bearish.
Details
The unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in January, with 6.85M unemployed. Employment rose slightly, and labor participation hit 62.6%.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 67.8 in February, the lowest since July 2024, driven by concerns over rising prices.
On Week 7, investors will focus on the CPI report, Powell’s congressional testimony, producer prices, retail sales, and industrial production. Earnings from McDonald’s and Coca-Cola will be watched. Globally, key data includes China’s CPI and PPI, UK and Euro Area GDP, and rate decisions in Russia and the Philippines.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update – January 20–24th, 2025
On Week 4, equities closed in the green, with the S&P reaching a new ATH. Meanwhile, joblessness climbed, and the decline in manufacturing was accompanied by a slowing service sector. The dollar fluctuated depending on Trump’s comments, finishing at a month low after his Davos call for a lower rate. Consequently, gold jumped to ATH. The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged while Bank of Japan hiked it to a 17-year high. BTC and other major coins fluctuated during the week before following gold’s upward movement. The rise of the crypto market was bolstered by Trump signing an executive order to establish a national digital asset stockpile and his ban on CBDCs.
Monday
On Monday, with markets closed for the holiday, the dollar weakened and gold held steady following Trump’s inauguration speech. BTC reached a new ATH in a sudden overnight run driven by sporadic momentum in anticipation of Trump’s pro-crypto policies and his inauguration speech mentioning BTC. ETH remained where it was. Trump’s official meme token briefly entered the top 8 tokens/coins, with a market cap of $50B reached within 3 days after its launch on Solana, nearly overshadowing Doge.
World Markets
Euro Area construction output surged by 1.4% YoY in November, ending eight consecutive months of contraction. Growth was driven by increases in building and specialized construction activities. While construction increased in some major economies, it contracted in others.
The PBoC kept its key lending rates unchanged. Both the one-year and five-year LPR rates remained at record lows. While China’s Q4 2024 GDP grew at its fastest pace in 18 months, the PBoC maintained a cautious stance due to renewed pressure on the yuan.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities rallied as worries over Trump’s tariffs appeared exaggerated. Apple shares declined due to the worsening outlook for the China market. The euro held at a 3-year low amid a slowing economy and anticipated trade restrictions. BTC increased while ETH continued to stall, and SOL remained in recovery mode after a post-Trump-coin-hike crash.
World Markets
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area rose in January, exceeding expectations. However, concerns remain regarding Germany’s economic growth, rising inflation, and political instability. The indicator of current economic situation improved, while inflation expectations surged.
Gold production in South Africa declined by 11.5% YoY in November 2024, the steepest decline in six months. This contributed to a decline in overall mining production.
Currencies
The dollar index rose following Trump’s announcement of potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Concerns over trade tensions and potential inflationary pressures boosted the dollar. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso declined significantly.
The euro traded near $1.03, close to its late 2022 lows, as dollar strength persisted following Trump’s inauguration. Trump’s announcement of potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada renewed concerns about trade tensions. While Eurozone inflation rose, the ECB is likely to maintain its easing trajectory. Markets anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB’s upcoming meeting.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, equities extended gains, with the S&P reaching a new ATH. Netflix surged on strong results. Oracle soared following its AI investment partnership. Nvidia and Microsoft also rallied. Gold jumped to a 3-month high amid concerns over Trump’s tariff threats on China, while the yuan depreciated. Natural gas prices increased due to cold temperatures, which set a 5-year record. BTC rose following Ulbricht’s pardon and the Doge ETF filing, while ETH remained unchanged. SOL surged with record volumes on its DEX.
Crypto
Osprey Funds and Rex Shares have filed with the SEC to launch several cryptocurrency ETFs, including those focused on Doge, TRUMP, and Bonk. They also plan to launch ETFs for SOL and XRP.
Currencies
The yuan fell to 7.28, reflecting concerns over Trump’s trade policies. Trump announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting February 1, citing China’s role in supplying fentanyl. It’s lower than a previously threatened 60%. Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada.
Commodities
Gold prices rose to $2,760, reaching a 3-month high. This increase was driven by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions following Trump’s tariff threats.
Silver prices climbed towards $31 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid Trump’s tariff threats. Strong industrial demand also supported silver prices.
Natural gas rose sharply as frigid temperatures drove demand to record highs. Heating needs surged, leading to significant gas withdrawals from storage.
Thursday
On Thursday, equities rose, continuing this week’s rally as investors evaluated how Trump’s policy changes could affect corporate profits. Higher jobless claims also contributed to the bullish sentiment. Oil slipped following Trump’s speech at Davos. BTC fluctuated below its ATH after Trump signed the national digital asset stockpile order. SOL and ETH mostly stalled.
Details
The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production Index fell to -9 in January, marking the third consecutive month of decline. Declining materials and finished goods inventories contributed to the contraction. New orders continued to decline, while employment remained steady. Elevated raw material costs led to higher manufacturing charges.
Initial jobless claims rose to 223K in the week ending January 18th, slightly exceeding expectations. The increase marked the sharpest rise in six weeks.
Crypto
Trump has reportedly signed an executive order to establish a national digital asset stockpile, emphasizing the importance of cryptocurrencies in global finance.
Commodities
Crude oil prices slipped following Trump’s Davos speech announcing plans to ask OPEC to lower oil prices. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further contributed to the price decline.
Friday
On Friday, equities closed lower, with semiconductor stocks weighing on tech indices. This decline was compounded by the PMI registering its weakest expansion in 9 months as consumer sentiment eased. Despite the declines, all indices posted weekly gains. Gold jumped to ATH after Trump called for a lower Fed rate. EU business procurement activity ticked up slightly in services, although manufacturing remained down. Japan’s central bank raised its rate to a 17-year high due to spiked inflation, despite slowing manufacturing activity in the country. BTC rose to near ATH on a weaker dollar, which dropped to a month low. ETH and SOL also saw increases following Trump’s prohibition of CBDCs.
Details
The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI eased to 52.4 in January, signaling the weakest expansion in 9 months. Manufacturing sector growth resumed, while service sector growth slowed. Hiring accelerated, and business optimism remained high. However, inflationary pressures intensified.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised lower in January. Both expectations and current conditions gauges declined. Inflation expectations for the year remained unchanged, while the 5-year outlook declined slightly.
Crypto
Trump’s executive order prohibits Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), potentially impacting global CBDC initiatives. While some celebrate this move in the crypto market, 134 countries are still exploring or testing digital currency projects, including G20 nations.
World Markets
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in January, marking the first expansion in private sector activity since August 2024. Services sector growth offset a contraction in manufacturing. New orders contracted, but at a slower pace.
The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% — the highest in 17 years, citing rising inflation and wage growth. This marks the third rate hike since March 2024. The BoJ raised its inflation forecast and slightly lowered its GDP growth outlook.
On Week 5, investors will focus on Fed and other central banks rate decisions. Powell is expected to hold rates steady at January 29 (Wed), while the ECB and BoC are likely to cut rates. Key economic data releases include GDP figures for major economies and PCE data. China will be closed for the Lunar New Year. Several tech megacaps, including Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple, are scheduled to report earnings.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
“`
SVET Markets Weekly Update (December 30, 2024 — January 3, 2025)
On Week 1, markets closed 2024 with the Nasdaq (+28%), the S&P (+25%), and the Dow (+13%) showing substantial YoY increases, while EU stocks ended the year with a modest +5.5% gain. At the same time, gold set a multi-year record by rising 27%, which is highly unusual for a period when stocks have also increased. Nonetheless, they were all outperformed by BTC, which achieved gains of 122%. Markets opened 2025 in the red as the dollar rose to 2-year highs, leading to sharp depreciation of the world’s major currencies, including the euro, pound, yuan, rupee, and yen. BTC and ETH stagnated but then began to recover, led by ETH, which saw significant inflows into its ETF.
Monday
On Monday, equities are down sharply, extending Friday’s tech selloff as pending home sales set a 3-year record and Dallas manufacturing rose for the first time in 2 years, while Chicago businesses continue to contract for a year in a row. Thin holiday trading amplified volatility. Large-cap tech stocks underperformed, while energy stocks gained. Despite the decline, major indices are set for above-average annual gains: the Nasdaq (+28%), the S&P (+25%), and the Dow (+13%). For comparison, EU stocks are closing the year with a +5.5% gain, with France (-3%), Britain (+5%), Italy (+12%), Spain (+14%), and Germany (+19%). China’s market rose +15%, Japan’s +20% (a record), South Africa’s +11%, and India’s +8%, while Brazil’s stocks dropped -10% and Mexico’s -15%. The gold price rose +27% in 2024. Natural gas surged over 20% overnight, reaching a 2-year high, driven by a cold snap. BTC (92K) and ETH (3.5K) sidetracked, showing some weakness as many traders continue to re-calibrate their upbeat prognosis after the Fed’s sharp policy pivot. YoY BTC added 122%.
Details
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 3.4 in December, its first positive reading in two years. Production and new orders showed some improvement, while employment and workweeks remained steady. Price pressures eased, but future production expectations moderated. 1Y trend: “Up” (Dal)
The Chicago PMI fell to 36.9 in December, indicating a 13-moths contraction in Chicago’s economic activity. New orders declined sharply, with more than half of respondents reporting fewer orders. 1Y trend: “Down” (ISM)
Pending Home Sales increased 6.90% YoY in November, setting 3-y record . This index has averaged -0.53% since 2002, reaching a high of 52.40% in April 2021 and a low of -36.80% in October 2022. 1Y trend: “Up” (NAR)
Crypto
El Salvador has increased its BTC holdings to over 6,000 BTC, making it one of the largest national holders of the cryptocurrency. This follows a recent $1 million purchase, despite a recent deal with the IMF. The country plans to continue acquiring BTC and may phase out its government-sponsored BTC wallet, Chivo. (source)
World Markets
European markets closed lower (Stoxx 50 -1%, Stoxx 600 -0.5%), with tech, industrials, and media stocks leading the decline. Inflation concerns and a hawkish ECB stance weighed on sentiment. Despite today’s dip, European stocks are set to post miserable gains for the year (Stoxx 600 +5.5%). 1Y trend: “Up”
The Ibovespa closed flat, as a Supreme Court decision on fiscal amendments boosted investor confidence. While inflation concerns remain, the market reacted positively to improved fiscal data. Commodity producers gained, while losses in other sectors limited overall gains. The Ibovespa is set to post a 10.4% decline for the year. 1Y trend: “Down”
Currencies
The dollar index rose to 108.2, approaching a 2-year high. The Fed’s hawkish stance, coupled with dovish signals from other central banks and the prospect of lower imports under Trump’s policies, strengthened the dollar. 1Y trend: “Up”
Commodities
Gold prices held below $2,610 per ounce, with gains limited by the Fed’s hawkish stance. Resilient labor data and persistent inflation have led to expectations of fewer rate cuts. Despite recent declines, gold is set to end the year with a 27% gain, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. 1Y trend: “Up”
WTI crude oil prices rose above $71 per barrel, driven by expectations of stronger Chinese demand and colder weather. However, concerns about potential oversupply and geopolitical risks under the new administration are keeping prices in check. 1Y trend: “Side”
Natural gas futures surged over 20%, reaching a 2-year high, driven by forecasts of a significant cold snap across the country. Strong demand and lower-than-expected inventory withdrawals supported the price increase. However, robust LNG exports and concerns about potential oversupply in the longer term may limit further gains. 1Y trend: “Up”
Comment: What’s Up With Gold?
In the 20th and 21st centuries, gold prices experienced significant fluctuations. In 1914, the increase was +11.1%. This continued in 1915 with a +24.4% rise and +25.7% in 1916. However, following the end of WW1 major hostilities, there was a sharp decline in 1917, with prices dropping by -15.5%, and further decreasing by -23.5% in 1918.
The Roaring Twenties saw a resurgence in gold prices, with increases of +27.1% in 1919, +68.3% in 1920, +24.8% in 1921, and +33.9% in 1922. This was followed by sharp drops during the Great Recession, with declines of -11.3% in 1923 and -17.6% in 1924.
From 1934 until 1971, the official gold price was fixed at $35 per ounce due to the Gold Reserve Act. However, the 1970s brought an inflationary spike, starting with an increase of +38.6% in 1971, and culminating in an extraordinary rise of +144% in 1980.
Beginning with the historical Fed easing program in 2000, gold prices skyrocketed from approximately $500 in 2000 to around $1,800 by 2011. In 2008, there was a notable increase of +25.3%, heavily impacted by the financial crisis. In 2011, gold prices rose by +10.1%, influenced by the European sovereign debt crisis.
From 2012 to 2014, prices reversed due to the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. However, gold prices started to rise again after geopolitical tensions and governments’ bureaucratic mismanagement escalated from 2018 to 2024.
Notably, a 27% price spike in 2024 is concerning, as it mirrors trends from the pre-war period of the 1910s and the overheating of the 1920s, which were followed by some of the greatest calamities of the 20th century.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities continued to slip as data showed home prices rising while services remained on an improvement track. Additionally, profit-taking and concerns about future Fed rate hikes weighed on sentiment. The dollar continued to rise, marking its best YoY performance in 10 years. Natural gas prices corrected sharply downward after a spike caused by weather conditions. BTC and ETH remained unchanged at $93K and $3.3K, respectively, as the market entered a period of low liquidity.
Details
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 4.2% YoY in October, exceeding expectations. New York led with the highest annual gain. Monthly prices declined 0.2%. 1Y trend: “Down” (SP)
The Dallas Fed’s service sector index eased slightly to 9.6 in December. Revenues increased, while hours worked and capital expenditures softened. Employment rebounded, and price pressures intensified. 1Y trend: “Up” (CFed)
Crypto
Venture capital investment in crypto startups reached $13.6B in 2024, a recovery from 2023. Predictions suggest an increase to $18B in 2025, driven by declining interest rates and increased regulatory clarity. (source)
On Wednesday, at this rare moment of calm, when all major markets around the world are simultaneously closed for a New Year celebration and while BTC and ETH are also on hold, I share with you my overview of the world’s economy in the comments.
Comment: What’s Up With Stocks?
In 2024, the top stock markets’ performers are:
– Europe: North Macedonia saw a remarkable increase of 66%, driven by optimistic expectations regarding its potential acceptance into the European Union. Cyprus experienced a 58% rise, attributed to a sharp increase in tourist arrivals, as numerous other destinations became less accessible due to the ongoing war.
– Americas: Argentina led with 172% surge, while Venezuela followed closely with a 106% increase. These gains can be primarily explained by investors flocking to stocks in an effort to protect their assets from rapid depreciation caused by extreme inflationary pressures.
– Asia: Pakistan’s market rose by 78%, benefiting from a swift slowdown in inflation, accompanied by the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by over 50% in 6 months. Sri Lanka saw a 50% increase, with similar dynamics at play as in Cyprus — a significant rise in tourist arrivals, coupled with a shift from inflation to deflation and a substantial cut in the local central bank’s rate. It was added by Kazakhstan’s stocks rising by 31% on sharp decrease of inflation and easing of banks policies, still, stocks rise was also stimulated by depreciating local currency.
– Africa: Zimbabwe’s stock market skyrocketed by 675%, while Ghana and Nigeria recorded increases of 56% and 35%. These trends mirror the situation in Venezuela, where rampant inflation has led investors to turn to stocks as a hedge against depreciation.
This sheds light on how the global economic landscape has unfolded following the disruptive “enclosure” policies enacted by bureaucrats in 2020, which led to severe inflationary challenges and the subsequent outbreak of conflict. In the EU, which historically relied on exports to China and imports from Russia, there are few examples of sustained stock market growth, aside from localized recoveries attributed to shifts in internal goods and services.
In the Americas, a significant capital flight occurred toward North America, as the rest of the region grappled with the impact of closed Chinese markets and shifting trade policies. Africa, traditionally reliant on external supplies for food and essential goods, continues to face the brunt of inflation, exacerbated by the ongoing war in Europe. Conversely, Asia, with its ample food supply and affordable energy sources — including those from Russia — has seen notable improvements in market quality.
Overall, the global economic framework remains largely unchanged from “globalization” times, with production and consumption concentrated predominantly in Asia, which sources resources and materials from various regions, including South America and Africa. These sourcing patterns are particularly vulnerable to disruptions, leading to more pronounced effects on South America and Africa when production is interrupted. North America, in contrast, focuses heavily on capital and services, while Europe appears increasingly uncomfortable, lacking an independent resource base to ensure uninterrupted internal consumption and growth, independent of Asia’s influence. The ongoing war compounds these issues further.
Looking ahead, the potential recovery of China could play a crucial role in the revival of South America, particularly Brazil, while Africa’s economic outlook may improve as well. Nonetheless, the EU situation and world’s food and energy supply chains will likely remain impacted by the sustained geopolitical conflicts. So, we can expect that capital continue to fly into N. American stock and money markets.
Thursday
On Thursday, equities declined, with the Dow experiencing its 4th consecutive red day as manufacturing activity continued to decrease. Meanwhile, mortgage rates reached yearly highs due to the Fed’s renewed hawkishness, and jobless claims fell again, undermining the prospects for a change in Powell’s stance anytime soon. Tesla and Apple shares are underwater, while Nvidia and Meta Platforms gained ground. The Euro slid to a 2-year low due to the rise of the dollar and declining manufacturing activity, particularly in Germany and in France, where the downturn has been the most severe since 2020. This situation was compounded by a rise in natural gas prices to yearly highs after gas flows via Ukraine stopped on New Year’s Day. Manufacturing activity also slowed in China. Both BTC and ETH jumped by about 3% due to traders’ unfulfilled expectations, as stock markets opened in the green.
Details
The Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in December, extending the contraction in factory activity. New orders declined, leading to lower output. Employment increased, but purchasing activity slowed. Input costs rose, leading to higher output prices. 1Y trend: “Down” (PMI)
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate increased to 6.97% in the week ended December 27, reaching its highest level since early July and erasing all easing reached over the past year. This rise reflects the upward trend in long-term Treasury yields, driven by the Fed’s hawkish stance. 1Y trend: “Side” (MBA)
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 211K in the 52nd week of 2024, the lowest level in eight months. This suggests a continued tight labor market, supporting the Fed’s stance on maintaining higher interest rates. 1Y trend: “Up” (DOL)
Crypto
Polymarket predicts an 85% chance of SEC approval for a Solana ETF in 2025, a significant increase from September. Approval is likely before August. Grayscale’s Solana ETF faces a key decision on January 23rd. (source)
World Markets
The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI edged lower to 45.1 in December, extending the contractionary streak. New orders declined sharply, leading to lower output and workforce reductions. Input costs fell, while business confidence remained muted. 1Y trend: “Side” (SP)
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.5 in December 2024. Output and new orders expanded at a slower pace, while foreign orders shrank. Employment declined, and input costs rose while selling prices fell. Business confidence weakened amid concerns about growth and trade. 1Y trend: “Down” (PMI)
Currencies
The British pound fell to an eight-month low, pressured by weak UK economic growth, a dovish BoE stance, and a stronger US dollar. Concerns about potential trade disruptions under the new US administration also weighed on the currency. 1Y trend: “Side”
Commodities
WTI crude oil futures climbed to $73.5 per barrel, reaching a 3-month high. Optimism about Chinese economic recovery on Xi’s New Year optimistic promises to revive the economy and a decline in crude oil inventories supported the price increase. 1Y trend: “Side”
European natural gas futures surged to a 14-month high, driven by concerns over gas supply disruptions following the end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine. Cold weather across Europe is expected to increase demand, while concerns remain about refilling storage levels next year. 1Y trend: “Up”
Friday
On Friday, stocks rose, snapping a five-session decline as the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed signs of improvement. Tech stocks led the gains, with Nvidia and Tesla rising significantly. The Indian rupee dropped to an ATL again, while the Chinese yuan continued to depreciate as the CBC indicated its intention to loosen policies. BTC and ETH rose, with the latter leading the way with a 4% jump as corporate traders hopped on the ETH bandwagon after Trump’s victory. Inflows into ETH ETFs reached $2.1B.
Details
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in December, showing the softest pace of contraction in 10 months. New orders increased, leading to higher production. Input costs rose, and firms are investing to mitigate potential tariff impacts. 1Y trend: “Side”
Crypto
Inflows into ETH spot ETFs reached a new high in December, totaling $2.1B. Fidelity’s ETH Fund saw the highest inflows, followed by Grayscale and Bitwise. This surge in inflows suggests growing investor interest in Ethereum ETFs. (source)
World Markets
The FAO Food Price Index fell 0.5% in December 2024, driven by lower sugar, dairy, and vegetable oil prices. Meat prices rose slightly. The index averaged 122 points for 2024, 2.1% lower than in 2023. 1Y trend: “Up” FAO
Germany’s unemployment rate remained at 6.1% in December, slightly below expectations. The number of unemployed increased slightly. The labor market has been impacted by the ongoing economic downturn. 1Y trend: “Up”
Currencies
The offshore yuan plunged past 7.35, its lowest level since 2007, as the PBoC signals a more accommodative monetary policy. This suggests the central bank may allow further depreciation to support economic growth amid concerns about slowing activity and deflationary risks. 1Y trend: “Up, Depreciating”
The Indian rupee weakened to a record low (86), pressured by capital outflows and expectations of an RBI rate cut. Slowing economic growth and increased Chinese economic optimism have driven investors away from Indian assets. 1Y trend: “Up, Depreciating”
On Week 2, will feature key data releases, including the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, followed by the Unemployment Rate on Friday. Other notable releases include and ISM Services PMI, JOLTs Job Openings and inflation data from both the Euro Area (YoY Flash and Unemployment Rate) and Germany and France (YoY Preliminary). Additionally, China will release its YoY Inflation Rate, while Japan will report on Consumer Confidence for December.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update – December 23–27, 2024
On Week 52, traders’ optimism was visibly shaken by a politically motivated Fed’s decision to significantly slow its pace of rate easing, undermining previously rosy outlooks for 2025. The Brazilian real further weakened against the dollar due to concerns over fiscal policy and rising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira hit a record low, and the South Korean won plunged to a 16-year low amid escalating political turmoil. In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.25%. BTC surged to $100K, diverging again from ETH, which stagnated under $3.5K. However, BTC then experienced a decline, dropping below $95K as traders reacted to movements in the stock market.
Monday
On Monday, equities closed higher, driven by gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Despite weak consumer confidence, the market rallied, with Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, and AMD leading the gains. The dollar’s growth receded as the Brazilian real weakened further amid rising inflation expectations. BTC (96K) and ETH (3.4K) continued to recover slowly after a difficult week.
Details
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to -0.12 in November, indicating a slight improvement in economic growth. Production, sales, and employment indicators showed modest improvement. However, consumer spending and housing remained weak.
Durable goods orders declined 1.1% in November, worse than expected. Transportation equipment led the decline. However, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft increased, suggesting some resilience in business investment.
New home sales rose 5.9% in November, exceeding expectations. Sales increased in the South and Midwest but declined in the West and Northeast. The median and average home prices remained elevated.
World Markets
The Brazilian real weakened further against the dollar amid concerns over fiscal policy and rising inflation expectations. Despite recent spending cuts, uncertainties remain, and inflation forecasts have risen. At the same time, Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil increased by $7B in November. FDI in Brazil has averaged $4.01B since 1995, reaching ATH of $16.27B in December 2010 and ATL of -$5.18B in December 2021.
Comment: What’s Up With Elon Musk?
The world has been divided not only from without but also from within. One lesson that business has learned from its past is to stay as far away from politics as possible. Not only is it dangerous to play those ruthless, brainless games of muscle against muscle and sword against sword, but it also frightens away many customers. Those who break that rule perish sooner or later.
However, bureaucrats want to be rich too, so they do whatever it takes to not only meddle in business under the pretext of “customer protection” but also to draw in as many entrepreneurs as they can. Alas, many talented but politically naive businesspeople still fall into that trap. They immediately find it impossible to retain the professional, impersonal cool that helped them serve humanity best; their motivation becomes irrational and emotional, filled with prejudices and foolishness.
The only solution is the complete decentralization, or better yet, alienation of business from any type of bureaucratic government, which are run by the “will of dear leaders” and not by direct democracy or algorithmic-based consensus mechanisms.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities rose during the shorter trading session on Christmas Eve, led by Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon, despite a slightly improving regional manufacturing situation (Richmond) as the market anticipates a pause in interest rate hikes by the Fed. The Brazilian real, South African rand, and New Zealand kiwi weakened against the dollar. New Zealand currency was further impacted by its economy entering a technical recession. BTC and ETH continued to edge higher as some traders tried to regain the New Year rally spirit.
Details
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved slightly in December, rising from -14 to -10. New orders and shipments stabilized, while employment remained positive. Business optimism increased, with firms expecting stronger future activity.
Crypto
One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges saw a 683% surge in Gen Z users after the 2024 presidential election. Trump’s pro-crypto policies and market growth fueled this increase. Gen Z, representing 53.8% of new users, is increasingly influential in crypto, driven by their digital-native mindset and openness to alternative finance. This trend has global implications for cryptocurrency adoption.
World Markets
Car sales in Thailand continued to decline sharply in November, falling 31.34% YoY. This marks the 18th consecutive month of decline, driven by rising household debt and tighter lending conditions. The FTI revised its car sales and production forecasts for 2024 downward.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, despite the markets being closed for Christmas, BTC surged to 100K, diverging again from ETH, which stagnated under 3.5K. In other news, the Bank of China and the Bank of Japan both maintained their key rates at 2% and 0.25%, respectively. Singapore has surpassed Hong Kong and Estonia as a global leader in blockchain technology.
Crypto
Singapore tops a recent study as the global leader in blockchain technology, surpassing Hong Kong and Estonia. The study ranked countries based on blockchain patents, jobs, and crypto exchanges.
World Markets
The PBoC injected CNY 300B into the financial system via MLF on December 25th, while withdrawing a significant amount of maturing loans. The MLF rate remained unchanged at 2.0%. Despite a recent shift to a “moderately loose” monetary policy, the PBoC has maintained a cautious approach, likely due to concerns about potential trade impacts from US policies.
The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.25% in its final meeting of 2024. While one board member favored a rate hike, the BoJ emphasized the need to assess American economic policies and wage growth. The bank expects a moderate recovery in Japan, with inflation remaining elevated.
Thursday
On Thursday, equities marginally recovered after the Christmas holidays. Although the market is still driven by tech performance and expectations of continued AI growth, its optimism was visibly shaken by politically motivated Fed actions, which undermined its previous dovish stance. Additionally, the money supply (M2) is almost at an ATH as a result of increasing throughout 2024, pointing to stagflation. The South Korean won plunged to a 16-year low amid growing calls for the president’s impeachment, while the Turkish lira hit an ATL as the country entered into a technical recession. Furthermore, France’s unemployment rose to a two-year high as Spanish producer prices started to grow for the first time in 20 months. BTC stumbled, falling back to 95K as traders suddenly sold off the recent spike, casting doubts on the Santa rally, while ETH lowered to 3.3K.
Details
Initial jobless claims fell to 219K in the second week of December, lower than expected. This suggests a tight labor market, aligning with the Fed’s assessment. However, outstanding claims rose, indicating a longer job search duration.
Money Supply M2 increased slightly to $21,221.20B in September.
Crypto
Over 15 million South Koreans, representing more than 30% of the population, now hold cryptocurrency. This surge follows the US presidential election and Trump’s pro-crypto stance. Crypto holdings and daily transaction volumes have significantly increased, approaching stock market levels.
World Markets
Producer prices in Spain rose 0.9% YoY in November, ending a 20-month decline. Energy prices rebounded, while costs for capital and consumer goods also increased. On a monthly basis, producer prices surged 2.7%.
Unemployment in France rose sharply in November 2024, reaching its highest level since August 2022. The increase was most pronounced among core-aged workers.
The Turkish lira hit a record low (35.2), plunging 16.3% in 2024. Weak economic growth, aggressive interest rate cuts by the central bank, and reduced currency interventions contributed to the lira’s decline. Turkey entered into the technical recession in Q3.
Friday
On Friday, equities fell, led by declines in major tech stocks. Despite weekly gains, rising Treasury yields reaching yearly highs and concerns about the Fed’s changed rate-easing policy are weighing on investors. Profits for China’s industrial firms declined. EU gas prices increased notably due to geopolitical factors. BTC and ETH continued to edge down, following the decline in stocks. BlackRock’s ETF was reported to hold over 1M ETH.
Details
The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.6%, driven by Fed’s sudden policy reversal to seeing inflation as a greater threat to the economy than a slowing labor market.
Crypto
BlackRock’s ETH ETF now holds over 1M ETH, worth over $3.5B. This indicates growing institutional investor confidence in ETH, despite its recent price struggles compared to BTC. The ETF allows investors to gain exposure to ETH without directly holding the cryptocurrency.
World Markets
Profits of China’s industrial firms declined by 4.7% YoY in the first 11 months of 2024. Weak demand, deflation risks, and the property downturn weighed on profits. Profits fell across various sectors, including ferrous metals, chemicals, and cars. Monthly profits shrank 7.3% in November, on track for the sharpest annual decline on record.
Retail sales in Spain grew 1% YoY in November, slower than expected. Growth slowed in both food and non-food categories. On a monthly basis, retail sales declined 0.6%.
Commodities
WTI crude oil prices rose 1.4%, supported by a larger-than-expected decline in oil inventories. However, concerns about lower Chinese demand and increased non-OPEC+ supply weighed on prices. Uncertainty surrounding energy policies under the new administration also impacted market sentiment.
European natural gas futures rose 2% due to concerns over potential disruptions to Russian gas supplies. The current transit agreement with Ukraine expires this year, and negotiations for a new deal face challenges. A potential loss of Ukrainian gas could increase Europe’s reliance on other sources.
Steel rebar futures in China declined by 17% in 2024, driven by weak demand amid the country’s economic slowdown. The property crisis and sluggish construction activity have significantly impacted demand for steel. Despite government support measures, economic activity remains weak, and the manufacturing sector continues to contract.
On Week 1, there will be ISM Manufacturing PMI, offering traders further clues on the state of the weakening manufacturing sector. Also, we’ll see EU Manufacturing PMI, which will provide an updated picture of slowing manufacturing activity in the EU. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI will shed more light on the state of China’s decelerating manufacturing sector. Other Key Releases include Case-Shiller Home Price YoY, which will provide further insights into the slowdown of the housing market.
Comment: What’s Up With 2025?
Investment banks have started to publish their 2025 “investment outlooks.” Here’s how it goes.
Saxo Bank stands out with its “Outrageous Predictions” among which are: “Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar,” “China unleashes CNY 50T stimulus to reflate the economy,” “A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company,” and “Pound erases post-Brexit discounts versus the Euro.”
Regardless, Citibank remains upbeat: “The global economy has ‘broken the rules’ by growing despite usually reliable recession signals. We believe this expansion can continue in 2025 and 2026…” HSBC supports this: “Cyclical support for portfolios should principally come from earnings growth and continued rate cuts…” Barclays says: “The macro backdrop is attractive.” Smaller banks, like NatWest, add: “We have been leaning into ‘risky’ assets… such as stocks and high-yield bonds…”
UBS sounds more cautious: “A key question is whether political change might extend or end the Roaring 20s. The upside scenario would see lower taxes, deregulation, and trade deals… The risk scenario is that trade tariffs, excessive fiscal deficits, and geopolitical strife will contribute to higher inflation, weaker growth, and market volatility.”
Overall, however, the tone of almost all “outlooks” is overly optimistic. It seems that corporate “analysts” are overcompensating for their “inflation-stagnation” type projections of 2023–24. Therefore, it is almost certain that those “rosy” scenarios are unlikely to be realized.
I stand by my already expressed opinion that in the epoch of a global, once-in-a-century generational shift, the only viable strategy is to play volatility. Importantly, though, this volatility might be stupendous.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update – December 9–13, 2024
On Week 50, equities were mixed, with the Nasdaq reaching new ATHs while the S&P and Dow declined ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Core inflation remained steady at 3.3%. Although prices for services such as shelter and transportation slowed, overall core inflation remained elevated. Producer prices increased unexpectedly.
In international news, the ECB cut its key interest rate, while China’s Politburo announced a shift to a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance for 2025. The Indian rupee hit a record low. Gold prices rose, driven by China’s decision to loosen monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Notably, BTC and ETH slowed down as many whales began to take profits after BTC reached a historic milestone of $100K.
Monday
On Monday, major indexes declined by more than half a percentage point, marking their third straight loss. Nvidia fell amid a Chinese anti-monopoly investigation. Other tech stocks were affected as well, with Palantir, MicroStrategy, and Coinbase down up to 10%. Investors are now eyeing Wednesday’s inflation report for cues on potential Fed rate cuts. EU equities rebounded sharply as traders anticipated a drastic rate cut by the ECB on Thursday, driven by a rapidly weakening economy. Copper prices surged on promises of stimulus from China. BTC and ETH dropped like a rock due to massive de-risking by corporate traders prompted by geopolitical events.
Details
Consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3% in November. Expectations increased for medical care, college education, and the three-year/five-year outlook. However, expectations declined for gas, food, and rent. 1Y trend: “Side” (NYFed)
Crypto
Google’s new quantum computing chip, Willow, can solve complex problems exponentially faster than traditional supercomputers. The chip’s ability to reduce errors as it scales up is a significant breakthrough in quantum computing. While not an immediate threat to crypto encryption, Willow represents a major step forward in quantum technology.(source)
World Markets
The Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 rose on Monday as investors awaited the ECB’s rate cut decision. China’s pledge for more accommodative policies boosted European stocks, particularly luxury brands. Volkswagen gained despite ongoing labor strikes. 1Y trend: “Up”
China’s Politburo announced a shift to a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance for 2025, signaling increased economic stimulus. This move, along with pledges for fiscal support and property market support, aims to counter economic slowdown and achieve the 5% GDP growth target. The announcement also comes amid potential US trade tensions. (PBC)
Mexico’s annual inflation rate slowed to 4.55% in November 2024, the lowest since March. Prices for housing, food, and non-alcoholic beverages slowed, while transportation costs accelerated. Core inflation also eased. 1Y trend: “Side” (MX)
Australia’s NAB business confidence index plummeted to -3 in November, driven by declines across most industries. Business conditions worsened, and forward orders fell. While labor and purchase costs increased, product and retail price growth slowed. NAB expects soft growth in Q4 2024. 1Y trend: “Side (NAB)
Commodities
Copper futures surged to a one-month high, driven by China’s announcement of more supportive economic policies. The Politburo’s pledge for a “moderately loose” monetary policy and “more proactive” fiscal stimulus boosted optimism for increased manufacturing demand in China, the world’s top copper consumer. 1Y trend: “Up”
Comment: What’s Up With Syria?
The collapse of Syria’s regime was influenced by economic challenges, but these alone do not fully explain the downfall. Many countries have endured worse economic conditions and remained politically stable.
Syria’s GDP grew by 1.3% in Q4 2021, rebounding from the 2013 low of -30%. Despite slow recovery, GDP averaged 3.14% annually from 1971 to 2021. Slow growth contributed to public discontent but was not uniquely catastrophic compared to other nations.
Unemployment fell to 13.5% in 2023 from a 2020 high of 15.3%, yet it remained far above the 8% seen in 2011. Rising unemployment fueled frustration but was not worse than rates in many other developing nations.
Inflation dropped to 120.4% in 2024 from a peak of 188.4% in 2021, far exceeding the historical average of 16.68%. Hyperinflation added strain, but examples like Argentina show higher inflation rates do not always topple regimes.
The trade deficit reached a record 17,383,055 SYP million in 2022, driven by a collapsed export sector, while the current account deficit improved drastically to -170 USD million in 2020. The trade deficit hurt elite support, while the improved current account reflected a temporary, misplaced optimism.
The personal income tax rate remained at 22% despite high inflation and unemployment. Rigid taxation alienated businesses but was not the primary cause of the regime’s collapse.
While Syria’s economic troubles — unemployment, inflation, and trade collapse — undoubtedly destabilized the regime, they do not fully explain its downfall. Many nations with worse conditions have maintained stability, pointing to a broader set of political and systemic factors driving the collapse.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities continued to decline as traders de-risked due to geopolitical concerns. Market sentiment became volatile, as some investors were worried about the state of the economy despite promises from the upcoming White House administration. They were also awaiting the release of the consumer inflation report, which added to concerns about tech stocks like Oracle and Nvidia. However, positive news from Alphabet and Tesla helped offset some of the negative impact. The market remains near record highs. China’s Politburo reaffirmed its loose monetary policy, leading to a slump in bond prices, while gold prices rose due to increased purchases by China. Cocoa is on a run again due to seasonal winds. Some OG crypto traders are taking profits, following stocks, which is leading to BTC and ETH fluctuating near their ATH levels.
Details
In November, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to 101.7, its highest since June 2021, up from 93.7 in October and exceeding predictions. This marks the first time in 34 months that the index has surpassed the 50-year average of 98, driven by presidential election outcomes. Business owners are optimistic about favorable tax policies and inflation relief, with a net 36% expecting economic improvement, the highest since June 2020. 1Y trend: “Up” (NFib)
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased by 2.2% in Q3, the highest level this year. Both output and productivity increased across the business and manufacturing sectors. (BLS)
Crypto
Argentina has approved crypto ETFs, allowing investors to trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies on the stock market. This move aligns with President Milei’s libertarian policies and aims to modernize Argentina’s financial system, attract foreign investment, and provide domestic investors with new investment opportunities.(source)
World Markets
China’s 10-year government bond yield held steady at 1.89% as investors awaited the start of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where leaders will review the economy and set priorities for the year. Recently, the Politburo reaffirmed its “moderately loose” monetary policy for 2025 and pledged proactive fiscal measures to boost consumption and stabilize markets. This approach echoes China’s response to the 2009 financial crisis, reflecting a commitment to address current economic challenges. 1Y trend: “Down”
Currencies
The dollar index rose to a two-week high as investors anticipate rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and ECB. Rising US inflation expectations and a strong jobs report have also supported the dollar. However, the market is still pricing in a potential Fed rate cut this month, creating uncertainty for the dollar’s future direction. 1Y trend: “Side”
Commodities
Gold prices rose above $2,660 per ounce, driven by China’s decision to loosen monetary policy and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Increased demand for safe-haven assets and China’s gold purchases further supported the price increase. Investors are now looking towards inflation data for clues on future Fed policy. 1Y trend: “Up”
Silver prices rose to a one-month high, driven by China’s announcement of increased economic stimulus. The expectation of a Fed rate cut also contributed to the rise in silver prices. 1Y trend: “Up”
Cocoa futures surged to a multi-month high (>$10,200) due to concerns over supply shortages in West Africa. Dry weather conditions and a larger-than-expected global deficit have contributed to the price increase. 1Y trend: “Up”
Comment: What’s Up With France?
Is the current political disorder in France explained by the worsening economic situation?
The CAC 40 rose 1.3% to 7,427, marking its highest point in nearly a month, with a weekly gain of 2.8%. France’s GDP grew by 1.2% year-on-year in Q3 2024, up from 0.9% previously, yet remains below the historical average of 3.04% and higher than the EU average. Unemployment edged up to 7.4%, still lower than the 10% highs of 2014, but reflective of a stagnant trend compared to previous declines. Inflation stood at 1.3% in November 2024, historically low when compared to the early 1980s highs of over 13%. The current account deficit widened to EUR 2.6 billion, while the government budget deficit was 5.50% of GDP in 2023, trending worse than the historical average but better than the 9% deficit recorded in 2020. Manufacturing indicators reflected continued contraction, with the PMI at 43.1, indicating a 22-month contraction period.
Despite the economic data suggesting stagnation, the political turmoil is attributed more to a generational shift and societal discontent rather than solely economic hardships, reflecting a broader narrative shaped by geopolitical tensions and issues surrounding immigration.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, the Dow declined, while the S&P rose and the Nasdaq reached a new ATH, boosted by a better-than-expected inflation report. Tech stocks, led by Alphabet, Tesla, and Nvidia, fueled the rally. The yuan fall on expectations that China may weaken its currency in response to potential tariffs. Argentina’s inflation dropped to a yearly low due to Milei’s libertarian reforms. BTC rose above 100K, while ETH reached 3.8K.
Details
Core inflation remained steady at 3.3% in November, meeting market expectations. While prices for services like shelter and transportation slowed, overall core inflation remained elevated. 1Y trend: “Down” Annual inflation rose to 2.7% in November, driven by higher food and energy prices. Overall inflation remains elevated. 1Y trend: “Down” (BLS)
The budget deficit for November reached $367B, a 17% increase from the previous year. This was largely due to calendar adjustments and increased government spending. The cumulative deficit for the fiscal year so far is a record high of $624B. 1Y trend: “Down, Increasing” (TR)
Crypto
Florida’s $185.7B pension fund is set to invest $1.85B in BTC, aiming to be a leader in cryptocurrency adoption. This move, backed by state leaders and the Florida Blockchain Business Association, could pave the way for wider use of digital assets in state financial planning. The potential for an additional $1.16B investment from the state’s surplus further strengthens Florida’s commitment to BTC. (source)
World Markets
Argentina’s annual inflation rate decreased to 166% in November (a yearly low), down from 193% in October. While this marks a decline, inflation remains at historically high levels. 1Y trend: “Side” (AR)
The Central Bank of Brazil raised its interest rate by 100 basis points to 12.25% to combat persistent inflation (a year high). The decision was influenced by domestic economic strength and concerns about global economic conditions. 1Y trend: “Side” (BCB)
Net foreign direct investment in the Philippines declined by 36.2% YoY in September. However, equity capital increased, primarily from Japan, the US, and Singapore. For the first nine months of 2024, FDI inflows rose by 3.8%. 1Y trend: “Down (BSP)
Currencies
The offshore yuan weakened as concerns grew about potential tariffs on Chinese goods. China may consider weakening its currency to offset the impact of these tariffs. Investors are also awaiting the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference for clues on China’s economic policies. 1Y trend: “Up”
Commodities
Crude oil prices rose 2.5% due to the EU’s new sanctions on Russian oil. However, concerns about weaker global demand, particularly from China, and increased US fuel inventories limited the price gains. 1Y trend: “Side”
Thursday
On Thursday, equities fell following a hotter-than-expected inflation report, and despite the Department of Labor reporting a three-month high spike in jobless claims. Adobe dropped the most, plunging almost 14% after providing a disappointing outlook. The euro fell as the ECB cut its rate by 25 basis points, while the Indian rupee depreciated to its record low. BTC and ETH, both just under their ATHs, moved sideways as traders took a pause amid the stock tumble.
Details
Initial jobless claims surged to a three-month high of 242K in the first week of December, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market. This unexpected rise could impact the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. 1Y trend: “Up” (DOL)
Producer prices increased unexpectedly by 0.4% MoM in November, driven by higher food and energy costs. The annual producer price inflation rate also accelerated. While core inflation remained steady, it remains elevated. 1Y trend: “Up” (BLS)
Crypto
BlackRock suggests that a 1–2% BTC allocation in a diversified portfolio can offer similar risk to holding major tech stocks. The asset manager highlights BTC’s potential for diversification and its relatively low correlation with other assets, despite its volatility. (source)
World Markets
India’s annual inflation rate eased to 5.48% in November, remaining within the central bank’s target range. While food prices moderated, overall inflation remains elevated, potentially delaying the start of a rate-cutting cycle. 1Y trend: “Up” (Mospi)
The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points in December, as expected. While inflation is expected to gradually decline, the ECB remains cautious and will adjust its policy stance based on incoming data. Economic growth is projected to be slower than previously anticipated. 1Y trend: “Side” (ECB)
Currencies
The Indian rupee hit a record low of 84.9 against the US dollar due to capital outflows and expectations of a rate cut by the RBI. India’s slower-than-expected economic growth and China’s stimulus package also contributed to the rupee’s weakness. 1Y trend: “Up, Depreciating”
Comment: What’s Up With Germany?
The DAX continues to perform well, closing at a record high of 20,429. Major manufacturers like BMW (+2%) and Rheinmetall (+1%) have buoyed market sentiment, signaling optimism for stockholders. However, GDP contracted 0.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, marking five consecutive quarters of minor decline. Compared to historical contractions, such as -7% in 2008 and -11% post-WWII, this stagnation seems minor.
Inflation sits at 2.2% (November 2024), far below peaks like 8% in 2022 and 11% in 1951, while unemployment remains steady at 6.1%, historically moderate compared to 12% during 1997 or 2007 crises. Despite these manageable figures, Germany’s business climate has sharply deteriorated.
The Ifo Business Climate Indicator fell to 85.7, levels reminiscent of 2008’s financial crisis. SMEs face significant regulatory hurdles, with bureaucratic priorities focused on social spending over economic productivity. Government budget deficits, now at 2.5% of GDP, reflect unproductive expenditures that fail to bolster entrepreneurial activity.
Consumer confidence mirrors this decline. The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped to -23.3, with income expectations at a nine-month low. Rising insolvencies and a lack of support for SMEs have left consumers pessimistic about the future.
Germany’s current political troubles stem not from severe economic contraction but from a rigid bureaucratic system unwilling to adapt. By neglecting SMEs and entrepreneurial freedom, Germany’s administration has prioritized short-term stability over long-term growth, exacerbating discontent among businesses and consumers alike. Unlike historical downturns, today’s issues are driven by systemic stagnation, not insurmountable economic hardships.
Friday
On Friday, equities were mixed, with the S&P and Nasdaq hovering near flat. Tech stocks like Nvidia and Marvell surged, while other giants like Meta and Amazon declined. The broader market was cautious ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wed next week as import prices suddenly jumped. Chinese economy deteriorated further which is reflected in sharply decreased number of new loans and absence of stimulus from CCP. Japanese yen declined on BoJ dovish stance faced by a slowing production. BTC (100K) and ETH (3.9) slowly push towards ATHs. Crypto adaption in the Nigeria exceeded 80%.
Details
Import prices increased by 1.3% YoY in November, up from 0.6% in October. This marks the highest annual growth rate since July 2008.
Crypto
Cryptocurrency ownership is rising globally. More than 50% of respondents in Nigeria (84%), South Africa (66%), Vietnam (60%), the Philippines (54%) and India (50%) reported owing a crypto wallet in 2024. Turkey (44%) and the USA (43%) rank lower.
World Markets
European stocks declined as investors assessed the ECB’s rate cut and China’s economic outlook (contrary to expectations China’s Economic Work Conference ended without specific details on the policies). Despite a move by Macron appointing Bayrou — pro-EU centrist Boomer, concerns about economic growth and inflation weighed on the market. 1Y trend: “Up” Industrial production in the Euro Area declined by 1.2% YoY in October. This indicates a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity in the region although with a slowing speed of decline.
Chinese banks extended less than 50% new loans in November than in the previous year (1.2T CNY), indicating weak credit demand despite the central bank’s efforts to stimulate the economy.
Currencies
The Japanese yen weakened to a two-week low against the dollar as market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan declined on worsening economy. The central bank’s cautious stance on further tightening and improving economic sentiment in Japan contributed to the yen’s weakness.
On Week 51, key economic events include the Fed’s interest rate decision, inflation data, and Chinese economic indicators. Central banks in the UK, Japan, and several other countries will also announce their policy decisions. Additionally, various economic data releases from the US, Europe, and Asia will be closely watched by investors.
Comment: What’s Up with EU?
The EU, which was first launched in the post-war period as an economic union and worked effectively to combat communism, has been transformed by lazy, entitled, and overall ineffective Brussels bureaucrats into a human progress-slowing machine.
There are two main types of people: those who think every day about how to make the world a better place and those who think every day about how to make the world a better place for themselves. We refer to the first group as producers and the second as bureaucrats. Producers create; bureaucrats cannot do that because they lack the abilities to do so. Instead, they scheme to position themselves atop the producers to “manage” them based on an innumerable array of “ideologies” which bureaucrats steal from creators. To maintain their power over producers, bureaucrats use coercion and demagoguery.
Over the past 5,000 years, bureaucrats have always prevailed over producers by exterminating them in various types of wars and concentration camps. However, in the past ten years, producers finally invented the algorithmic consensus mechanism, which allows them to manage themselves without bureaucrats. In the past three years, bureaucrats have tried to exterminate those who invented and employed these mechanisms, but they have not succeeded.
EU bureaucrats have been at the forefront of efforts to eliminate decentralized algorithms by smearing and “regulating” them. However, as a result, these bureaucrats have demonstrated once again that all they can do is to imprison people — achieving nothing.
As a result of these bureaucrats being in power for the past 30 years since the European Union was created, the economy of this union has drastically underperformed compared to the less regulated transatlantic cousins’ economies. Moreover, EU bureaucrats, through their outrageous stupidity and arrogance, have managed to turn their allies into enemies and spark almost a nuclear conflict in the midst of their continent. All the individuals directly responsible for this still cling to power with all their might, despite their incompetence being apparent to everyone.
However, those who will replace them — thoughtless henchmen — are even more dangerous, and their ascent to power will lead to a complete disassembly of the European Union. But it will cost Europeans dearly, who will pay for their mental laziness with both money and blood.
In a time of impending global wars, the world needs a military coordinated but economically and politically decentralized Europe. Economics must be governed by direct democracy based on the consensus mechanism facilitated by machines. War must be conducted by several leaders, each of whom can be controlled by consensus and replaced quickly if needed, and that war must be won with high technologies produced by liberated producers and inventors not by blood of recruits.
The advance of bureaucratic class must be stopped if the world wants to continue to exist.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update – November 25–29, 2024
On Week 48, the S&P and Dow both reached new ATHs driven by optimism surrounding former Trump’s policies and significant inflows of foreign capital. Despite this positive market sentiment, the underlying economic fundamentals continue to show signs of deterioration. For example, in the manufacturing sector, the Richmond manufacturing index remained unchanged at -14 in November, reflecting ongoing weakness.
Internationally, the Chinese offshore yuan weakened to a three-month low amidst growing concerns surrounding upcoming trade tensions. Meanwhile, gold prices remained steady as markets closed for Thanksgiving. In the EU, economic indicators continued to decline as Brussels increased the money supply to an ATH. This has been compounded by a significant depreciation of the Euro, which fell to 1.06 in November, marking its worst monthly performance in over a year. Contributing factors include tariff expectations, sluggish Eurozone growth, and political instability in Germany and France.
In the cryptocurrency market, BTC first slowed, staying below 95K, but then recovered to 97K, and ETH corrected slightly to 3.5K before rising again to 3.7K. Overall, the crypto markets appear to be awaiting a catalyst to propel upward into a potential ‘New Year rally.’
Monday
On Monday, equities were mixed as the economy continued to slow down, as reflected in the decline of manufacturing indexes. Investors welcomed Bessent’s nomination, anticipating the Treasury’s market-friendly policies. Retail stocks like Macy’s and Bath & Body Works saw significant movements. The market is expected to be less active due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The German economy is sliding down, while the Nigerian economy continues to accelerate, with the financial and banking sector expanding by 30%. BTC stumbled and eased to $95K as investors took profits and relocated some assets into secondary coins, leading to ETH’s continued rise, reaching $3.6K.
Details
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to -0.40 in October 2024, indicating a weakening economy. This was driven by declines in production, employment, and personal consumption.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved slightly to -2.7 in November, indicating a slightly less severe contraction in Texas manufacturing activity. While the outlook for the future improved, current conditions remain weak, with declining production, new orders, and shipments. Labor market conditions were mixed, and input and output price pressures remained elevated.
The MOEX Russia index fell to a near-year low of 2,530, driven by geopolitical tensions, capital controls, high interest rates, and weak demand from key trading partners. Russia’s escalating conflict with Ukraine and China’s slowing economy have negatively impacted the performance of Russian stocks, particularly in the energy and banking sectors.
Crypto
Cardano (ADA) has seen a significant price surge, tripling its market capitalization to $37.4 billion in just 17 days. This is driven by several factors, including increased regulatory clarity efforts led by Hoskinson, the integration with BTC through the BitcoinOS Grail Bridge, and the relisting on Robinhood, expanding its accessibility to retail investors. Cardano’s growing DeFi ecosystem, with a record-high TVL, further contributes to its positive momentum.
World Markets
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell to 85.7 in November, indicating a decline in business sentiment. Both current conditions and business expectations worsened. The manufacturing sector experienced a decline, while the services sector showed a sharp drop in sentiment. The retail sector showed some improvement, but overall business confidence remains low.
Brazil’s consumer confidence index rose to a one-year high in November. Improved consumer expectations boosted the overall index. This positive sentiment could allow the central bank to maintain its current monetary policy stance.
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.46% YoY in Q3, accelerating from the previous quarter. The non-oil sector, particularly financial services (+30%), was the main driver of growth. The oil sector also saw an increase, but at a slower pace than the previous quarter. The economy expanded by 10% QoQ, marking a significant rebound.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, the S&P and Dow reached new highs on Trump optimism and inflow of foreign capital, despite new home sales plummeting to a 17-year low and Fed minutes indicating growing hawkishness among FOMC members. Tech stocks outperformed, while automakers and companies with exposure to Mexican trade faced declines. EU markets fell, the yuan hit a 4-month low, and the Mexican peso dropped to a 2-year base, while the Canadian dollar reached a 4-year bottom due to Trump’s threats to impose 10% tariffs on China and 25% on neighboring countries. BTC is sharply down (91K) as it follows a classic Wyckoff pattern, where large corporate traders, who currently dominate the market, are trying to shake off smaller competitors as they accumulate assets before a decisive breakout above 100K. ETH and other altcoins followed suit, while traders, facing an absence of retail buyers, were unable to maintain momentum without corporate support.
Details
Building permits declined 0.4% in October. Multi-family permits decreased, while single-family permits increased slightly. Regional data showed declines in the Midwest, South, and West, but a significant increase in the Northeast.
Home prices rose 4.6% YoY in September, the slowest pace in a year. While some cities like New York and Chicago saw significant growth, others like Denver and Portland experienced slower growth. MoM, prices declined slightly.
New home sales plunged 17.3% in October, reaching a 14-year low. This sharp decline was primarily due to hurricanes impacting the South and ongoing affordability challenges. While the median and average sales prices increased, the inventory of unsold homes rose to 9.5 months of supply.
Wednesday
Equities closed lower as investors took profits after recent gains, with tech stocks leading the downturn. Investors ignored falling PCE and a slowing economy, which plays into the hands of the Fed’s doves. The economic situation in both Germany and France continued to worsen. ETH surged 10%, while BTC remains in an accumulation mode.
Details
Core PCE inflation rose by 2.1% QoQ in Q3, slightly below expectations. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q3. Personal consumption increased, driven by both goods and services. Government spending and fixed investment also contributed to growth. However, net trade had a negative impact, and inventory investment was a drag.
The Chicago PMI fell to 40.2 in November, indicating a continued contraction in economic activity. Production, employment, backlogs, and inventories declined. New orders increased slightly, and input prices moderated.
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased slightly by 0.2% in October, missing market expectations.
Thursday
Markets were closed for Thanksgiving.
Friday
On Friday, equities closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching new ATHs. Tech stocks, particularly semiconductor companies, rallied on news of less stringent export restrictions to China. Retailers also gained due to strong Black Friday sales. In the EU, inflation continued to rise, indicating stagflation as the Euro fell to a yearly low. India’s GDP slowed further, marking a year of contraction, with the rupee at a record low. At the same time, the Brazilian economy continued to show growth, with record employment, although it experienced a real depreciation of 20% YoY, driven by increasing government spending. BTC is slowly aiming to reach $100K again, while ETH has started to consolidate under $3.7K, with $4K already on traders’ minds.
On Week 49, key economic indicators will be released, including the November jobs report, Fed speeches, and various manufacturing and consumer sentiment data. Globally, GDP data from South Africa, Brazil, and Australia, along with unemployment rates from the Euro Area and Canada, will be released. Additionally, manufacturing and services PMIs from various countries, including China, South Korea, and European nations, will be closely monitored. India’s interest rate decision and inflation data from several countries will attract traders’ attention.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
Dieser Beitrag ist ein öffentlicher RSS Feed. Sie finden den Original Post unter folgender – Link steht im Artikel – Quelle (Website) .
Unser Portal ist ein RSS-Nachrichtendienst und distanziert sich vor Falschmeldungen oder Irreführung. Unser Nachrichtenportal soll lediglich zum Informationsaustausch genutzt werden. Die auf dieser Website bereitgestellten Informationen stellen keine Finanzberatung dar und sind nicht als solche gedacht. Die Informationen sind allgemeiner Natur und dienen nur zu Informationszwecken. Wenn Sie Finanzberatung für Ihre individuelle Situation benötigen, sollten Sie den Rat von einem qualifizierten Finanzberater einholen. Kryptohandel hat ein großes Handelsrisiko was zum Totalverlust führen kann.
